More than a Party Congress
The Price of the Question
The 17th congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC), which has been ruling the country for more than a half century, is worth noticing not only because its agenda which is traditional for this kind of events. More important are anticipated decisions and upcoming revamping of the party’s high ranks.
As for the main decisions, the summary report and amendments to the party’s charter are going to reflect ideas proposed by Hu Jintao in the past five years.
It is first of all “the scientific concept of development”. This academic term hides a striving to stop the one-way race for growth rates, which has become China’s heel of Achilles and headache despite all efforts. China will try to transfer the current predominantly extensive model of development to a new intensive one which will be more balanced but not so resource-intensive and more environment-friendly. This would allow China in short time to change its current status of the global factory to a more privileged position of one of the leading global innovation centers and make its economy not only market-oriented but also “making person the basis”, according to Hu Jintao, meaning socially oriented.
However, even these conditions still make it hard to create a harmonious society in China, another innovation of the congress. Tackling social and regional confrontations and contradictions takes truly radical efforts. It is also hard to reach the “harmonization” of foreign relations which are shadowed by fears of China’s rise and efforts to suppress this resurgence.
One could give different evaluation of the revamping of the Chinese political basics. Of course, the change of ideas of the previous leader Jiang Zemin for innovations proposed by Hu Jintao reflects an eternal law which was described by Greek poet Kavafis. “An irreplaceable shall come and soon delete the indelible,” he wrote. In my opinion, another thing is more important. The proposed innovations meet interests of China as well as the whole world which has been increasingly active in asking Beijing to take over more responsibility in resource-saving, environment protection, fighting poverty and ensuring stability for the global economy.
We should expect significant changes not only in the party’s Central Committee but also in the Politburo’s permanent committee which is likely to admit Hu Jintao’s old allies and protégés chosen from the most effective leaders in agencies and regions. The leadership of the party will continue to grow younger, which is already seen on the province level.
However, the main question on the congress is whether it will point to the likeliest successor to Hu Jintao with an eye to the CPC’s 18th congress to be held in 2012. China has had a similar precedent when Hu was elected to the permanent committee of the Politburo in 1992 right from the Central Committee membership and bypassing the post of an ordinary Politburo member. Analysts believe that this time several candidates for the party and country leadership will rise to high ranks and will have to show in practice what they are worth.
Vladimir Portyakov, deputy director of the Far East Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 16, 2007
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