"The reasoning of Congress representatives is clear but consequences of this move are less obvious," says the Center for Political Technologies' First Deputy Director Boris Makarenko.
Photo: Dmitry Lebedev
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Torn between Party Loyalty and Voters
The Price of the Question
What pushed American lawmakers to pass the Armenian genocide resolution and why did they do it now? One could assume that the Democratic-controlled Congress simply wants to spite the Republican administration. This reason certainly contributed to the decision but it would be a mistake to deem it as the only motive. There is not anything more dangerous for a Congressman than accusations of being unpatriotic and hampering American interests overseas. If there is anything that underscores a party motive which prompted the representatives to pass the decision on the genocide of Armenians, it is desperately unpopular foreign policy of the Bush administration as well as the collapse of the Democratic majority’s attempts to pass fairly balanced bills on the reduction of American forces in Iraq. An attempt to gain revenge is clearly seen, too.
Words by Richard Neustadt, the noted specialist in the U.S. presidency, give the best illustration for the second motive. There is no division of power in the United States but there is constant rivalry between the executive and legislative branches. Congress has been encroaching on nealry exclusive presidential powers in foreign policy for more than two hundred years. None of American presidents has ceded an inch of their foreign policy prerogatives to lawmakers. So the Capitol Hill has to look for other ways. The adoption of a non-binding resolution is a typical example. The American ambassador in Ankara will have a hard time explaining to the Turks that President Bush’s position is unchanged. He gets his pay from the Congress-adopted budget for that, after all.
The third motive is simple. Elections are nearing. Turkish immigrants are not numerous in America but the Armenian community is large, solid, wealthy and active. Winning its sympathy is a major move in the election campaign for every Representative. 40 out of 50 states passed similar resolutions long ago, though they are not binding. It will also be interesting to see the vote in the full House of those Republicans who have sizeable Armenian communities in their districts. What will win – party discipline (the White House and Congress will be pressing hard) or fear to lose the next election?
Compared to European democracies, domestic policy reasons in America have always been considered more closely in making foreign policy decisions. The reasoning of Congress representatives is clear but consequences of this move are less obvious. Opposing an opinion of its American allies, Turkey is going to hold a military operation in Iraq’s Kurdistan in any case. Another house of Congress has already caused uproar in Baghdad passing a decision that would see the country split in three provinces. American foreign policy won’t crumble from these steps not because Congress’s opinion is not important. The thing is, this foreign policy has no further to fall.
Boris Makarenko, first deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 12, 2007
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