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Consumer Confidence Dips
Rosstat's consumer confidence index fell to 0.5 percent in the third quarter of the year. That indicator was 0 in the second quarter, the maximum ever recorded. The state statistics agency notes “the maintenance of positive tendencies in consumer expectations.” There are almost equal numbers of people with positive and negative expectations, while pessimists outnumbered optimists by 25 percent in 2000. The number of those who think the economic situation improved in the third quarter exceeded those who disagreed by 8 percent, and the number of those who expect the situation to continue to improve exceeded pessimists by 7 percent. Residents of the Russian Federation who believe that their economic situation has improved and will improve were outnumber by those who felt the opposite by 1 and 2 percent, respectively, however.
Those data are t odds with Rosstat income tracking. Salaries have been rising by 25 percent per year for several years. The average monthly salary in Russia topped $500 in the summer of this year. The first explanation for the public's paradoxical attitude is that inflation is so stubborn. But even if inflation reached 9 percent this year, the growth of real income will be around 15 percent, whether it is appreciable or not. The second cause is that salaries are growing unevenly, with younger workers making greater strides than older. There is also a psychological factor. Economic security is often perceived not in comparison with the past but with the ideal. But even if consumer ambitions are growing faster than consumer capacity, the public is making sober evaluations. The majority consider this an inappropriate time for major purchases (pessimists outnumber optimists by 14 percent on that question). That is the factor dragging the consumer confidence index down: the public is unsure of future income growth.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 09, 2007
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Photo: Sergey Mikheev
