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Iraqi President Rules and Divides
// the country along religious and oil lines
Iraq’s President Jalal Talabani unexpectedly supported on Monday the idea to divide the country along ethnic and religious lines into three regions. That plan has recently been approved by the U.S. Senate. Talabani believes that dividing Iraq will prevent civil war among Shiite and Sunni Muslims and Kurds. So far, it does not mean Iraq’s split-up. However, it gives oil-rich Kurdish north and Shiite south an extra trump card for getting free of Sunni Baghdad’s patronage. However, most experts believe it might later lead to bloodshed unseen by the Middle East since the time of crusades.
We Don’t Need Iraq Like That
“I think the resolution passed by the Senate is a very good one,” Iraq’s President Jalal Talabani said on CNN on October 7. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Senate voted 75-23 in favor of a resolution actually urging to divide Iraq along religious and ethnic lines. However, Talabani believes that implementing the idea will not harm Iraq. “The resolution insists on the unity of Iraq, the prosperity of Iraq, national reconciliation, and asks our neighbors not to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq,” the president said. “Moreover, granting more independence to regional authorities does not mean Iraq’s split-up,” Talabani added.
The resolution has been developed by Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, head of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as an amendment to the draft bill on military policy. The plan is to create three administrative-territorial divisions in Iraq: for Kurds in the north, for Shiite Muslims in the south, and for Sunni Muslims in the center. The federal center is to remain in the current capital, Baghdad. U.S. senators believe that only this type of state structure will put an end to religious and ethnic strife in Iraq.
“The U.S. Congress believes that the U.S. should actively support a political settlement among Iraq’s leading groups based on the provisions of Iraq’s constitution that call for creating a federal system of government, with strong regions and a limited central government,” the Biden amendment states. At the same time, Biden underlined that federalism in Iraq does not mean the country’s partition, and that the U.S. stands for Iraq’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. “Iraq’s own constitution contains the federalism provision. It is already being implemented in relation to Kurds,” the senator reminded.
However, Biden did not remind that Iraq’s current president is a Kurd.
Oil is the Staff of Life
Iraqi Kurdistan, at which Joseph Biden points, is indeed using life’s every opportunity. Unlike the rest of Iraq, Kurds successfully maintain order and security on their territory. The region has been undergoing a construction boom for several years already. The regional government has full powers. It is headed by Massoud Barzani, leader of the region’s leading force, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, seated in Erbil. Barzani avoids declaring independence overtly, but there is almost no influence of Baghdad in Kurdistan. When the central authorities try to put pressure on the regional government, the latter sets down Baghdad’s envoys gently, but firmly.
The reason why Kurds are so independent is hidden in Iraqi Kurdistan’s resources. Iraq’s larger share of oil deposits is in the country’s north, where over 3.5 million Kurds live. Neighboring Syria and especially Turkey willingly buy oil extracted in Kurdistan. Experts say the revenues from selling oil often bypass Baghdad on their way to the regional government’s accounts. These schemes for delivering oil and receiving payments were developed back in the 1990s, when Iraqi Kurdistan became autonomous de facto from Saddam Hussein’s regime, and was sheltered by U.S. and Great Britain’s air forces.
Beside their independence in solving domestic issues, Iraqi Kurds also act on the foreign policy arena without a backward glance at Baghdad. So, Erbil regularly exchanges notes with Ankara. The latter threatens to carry out a military operation in Iraqi Kurdistan in search of the Kurdistan Labor Party’s militants there, who act on Turkey’s territory. However, Baghdad is even more irritated with Kurdish business activities.
Last week, Erbil announced it had signed four contracts with western oil companies for geological exploration of several deposits, and for building two oil refineries. A source in the regional government refused to name the companies, saying only they are French and Canadian, and that the deal is worth over $800 million in total. A little earlier, Kurds had signed an oil exploration agreement with Hunt Oil of Texas. De facto, Iraqi Kurds already have all elements of federal status: an independent profitable budget, their own army, and a territory they control.
Iraqi Shiites are in a less advantageous position. They have oil deposits as well, but the south still remains a military action zone. Tens of extremist groupings fight there against the coalition forces and the governmental troops, and among each other. Last weekend, two most influential Shiite leaders of Iraq, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, signed a truce agreement. However, experts doubt the truce will be observed. Nevertheless, Shiites might later use the Biden plan for separating from Baghdad as well as Kurds.
Federalism Will Not Pass
It is mostly Sunnis in Iraq who dislike the expanded federalism idea. Historically, they inhabit the country’s central areas devoid of oil. For decades, Iraq’s prosperity was based on exploiting the country’s south and north. If Baghdad loses the regions that feed it, it will be in a desperate situation. Sunnis will lose access to the sea and control over oil transportation routes. In other words, Sunnis will be completely crossed out from the region’s economic activities.
Thus, central Iraqi authorities, headed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, are categorically against the Biden plan. The PM is confident that step “will lead to catastrophe” and promised not to allow it. However, Baghdad is not alone in its struggle for Iraq’s integrity and centralization. Kuwait, Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and other Persian Gulf states toughly criticized the idea to divide Iraq.
Yet, it is Syria, Iran, and Turkey that are Baghdad’s most fervent defenders. The matter is, at least 20 million Kurds in total live in these countries. So, Damascus, Tehran, and Ankara have some not-unfounded fears that Iraqi Kurdistan’s strengthening will cause an upsurge of the constantly fermenting Kurdish national movement. Most experts believe it might eventually lead to a large-scale redrawing of borders throughout the entire Middle East. That, in turn, might cause bloodshed unseen by the region since the time of crusades.
Alexander Reutov
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 09, 2007
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