Yushchenko Exceeds All Expectations
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko made a statement yesterday that rocked the post-election nation. Instead of instructing Yulia Timoshenko to form an Orange government, he proposed forming “a broad ruling coalition” with the Viktor Yanukovich's Party of the Regions. The president made his announcement 20 minutes after Gazprom announced that the conflict over natural gas had been settled.
Expectations Betrayed
Nothing yesterday morning augured surprise. The Central Election Commission finished counting the last 2 percent of votes and the victors, the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense divided up portfolios. The Timoshenko Bloc claimed the economic posts, and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense the enforcement posts.
All sides were waiting for the president's announcement that a new government had been formed by the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense. No one doubted that would happen. Before the elections, Yushchenko had called on the democratic forces to bury the hatchet, promised Timoshenko the prime minister's post and swore that the Orange would have the majority in the new Rada.
The president's blessing of the democratic alliance was scheduled for 12:30. At 12:40, the presidential secretariat stated that the president would appear at 1:00. Then it was delayed until 1:30, then 2:00, and still the president was nowhere to be seen. Finally he appeared at 2:30.
“I instruct the Party of the Regions, Yulia Timoshenko Bloc, Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense and the other winners of the parliamentary elections to begin preliminary consultations on forming a majority in the parliament and forming a government for the country,” Yushchenko said, adding that true political stability can be attained only through mutual understanding. Then he flew off to Die Quadriga Awards in Germany.
Timoshenko was in a state of shock. The evening before, she had stated that the Orange could work with the Party of the Regions only in the opposition. “We are honest before people,” she declared. “Again, we assure you that, if there is a coalition between Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense and the Party of the Regions, our political force will remain in the opposition.” Confusion reigned at Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense headquarters. Boris Tarasyuk, leader of the People's Rukha and No. 11 on the Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense party list, was at a loss to explain the president's motives. He said that his party would leave the bloc if a coalition with the Party of the Regions was created.
Anna German, advisor to Yanukovich, told Kommersant that the Party of the Regions would want the prime minister's post.
The Gas Factor
The Ukrainian president made his shocking statement 20 minutes after a happy ending was declared in Russia to the dispute with Ukraine over natural gas. Gazprom moderated its position as ostentatiously in Ukraine's favor yesterday as it had taken a hard line toward it shortly before. The sharply worded statements by the monopoly on Wednesday about possible cutbacks in gas supplies because of a $1.3-billion debt were an obvious reaction to the Orange victory. A hasty visit to Moscow by Ukrainian Energy Minister Yury Boiko, who is loyal to Yanukovich, who is loyal to Russia, made it clear who could help Ukraine avoid gas trouble.
Boiko began his round of meetings with Gazprom head Alexey Miller at the monopoly's headquarters. Then he met with First Deputy Prime Minister and chairman of Gazprom Dmitry Medvedev at government headquarters. His success was announced by the monopoly with uncharacteristic speed. The sides agreed on repayment of the debt by November 1.
Official Gazprom representative Sergey Kupriyanov explained that no exact schedule of payments has been established, but an understanding has been reached. Negotiations will continue with Ukrainian authorities, Ukrgaz-Energo and the intermediary Rosukrenergo this month. Kupriyanov emphasized that, if Ukraine did not fulfill its obligations, the issue of turning off the gas would come up again.
Gas has played its role again,” commented Vadim Karasev, head of the Kiev Institute of Global Strategy. “It seems they were worried in Moscow that Timoshenko would keep her campaign promise and close the energy flow between Russia and Ukraine.” Timoshenko had promised that her first move as prime minister would be to eliminate Rosukrenergo as intermediary between the two countries. Gazprom took that as a threat to its interests.
The President's Bluff
Sources say that the Orange coalition is not dead yet, however. Couriers were dispatched from Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense to Timoshenko. Vyacheslav Kirilenko, No. 2 on the Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense party list with ambitions to become speaker of the Rada, came to the Timoshenko Bloc office personally. Sources say that his mission was to explain that the president's declaration was strictly a formality.
The plan, Kommersant's sources say, is for Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense leader Yury Lutsenko to step into the fray after Timoshenko refuses to negotiate with the Party of the Regions. He will announce (today, according to the sources) that the bloc has unanimously voted to refuse to form a coalition with Yanukovich. Yushchenko will return from his trip abroad and announce an Orange coalition.
Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense deputy campaign manager Nikolay Onishchuk has issued a statement saying that Yushchenko has not demanded that a coalition be formed with the Party of the Regions, but only “urged for a political agreement that will guarantee stability.” Larisa Mudrak, head of the information department of the presidential secretariat, advised Kommersant, “Don't worry. Everything will be fine.”
Vladimir Solovyev, Olga Mordyushenko; Valery Kalnysh, Kiev
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 04, 2007
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