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Missile Diplomacy
// US and Russia Butt Heads over Missile Defense
US and Russian delegations discussed issues of missile defense in Moscow. This round of meetings is likely to be the last attempt to find a compromise to the US missile defense program in Europe. The chances of this is slim, but neither president wants relations to worsen before the upcoming elections in both countries. DMITRY SIDOROV, from Washington.
After a short pause Moscow and Washington resumed intensive negotiations that will continue into next week. Assistant Secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation John Rood and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Kislyak will continue discussions at their next meeting October 9-10, concluding the “2 on 2” negotiations agreed upon by Bush and Putin earlier this summer. Negotiations between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and their Russian counterparts Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov are scheduled for October 12. According to sources in the Kremlin its possible that President Putin may receive the guests as well.
It is very symbolic that the US conducted a missile defense test last Friday, enacting an attack by North Korea. The Pentagon announced that the test was a success. Sources say that Russian military personnel were present at the test in what some call a reconciliatory gesture by Washington to show Moscow that its missile defense system is not directed against Russia.
Washington’s position is that the Gabal radar station could only serve as a compliment to the American system in Poland and the Czech Republic, not as an alternative. If the Czech Republic does not agree to the radar there are other options on the table. “There are other countries where we could base our radar and they are not as ideal as Poland and the Czech Republic,” Henry Obering, director of the Missile Defense Agency, said.
According to sources in the White House the fact that Bush’s position has not changed means that the coming negotiations in Moscow will be difficult. Ariel Koen, the leading expert of the Heritage Foundation. “Russian military leaders understand that the US missile defense system in Europe poses no threat to their own missiles for the foreseeable future, but is nonetheless trying to hinder its deployment. But this has a logic of its own. They feel that in an expanded form the US missile defense system may compromise Moscow’s ability to strike back.” Koen feels that the only way to overcome the impasse is to include Russia as a controlling partner in the missile defense network.
In this respect Moscow and Washington may share information about possible missile attacks. However, this kind of cooperation is still being discussed.
Moscow’s position is also unchanged. During a meeting in September First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov was reported to have said that the US missile defense system in Europe was not directed against Iran, who doesn’t have and will never have intercontinental missile capabilities, but rather against Russia.
This all means that Russia will in no way agree to the deployment of missile defense systems in Poland and the Czech Republic and there is no room for discussion. The chances of reaching a compromise in the last round of negotiations are minimal. But at the same time neither side is interested in rocking the boat. With presidential elections on the horizon in both countries neither is likely to pedal the problem. Both sides will try to save face and appear to make progress during the talks.
DMITRY SIDOROV
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 04, 2007
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