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Ruling Coalition to Be Formed in Ukraine
The Ukrainian Central Elections Commission is to announce today the preliminary results of that country's early parliamentary elections. It was clear yesterday that five political groups would be represented in the Supreme Rada: the Party of the Regions, the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc, Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense, the Communist Party and the Litvin Bloc. Now that it has decided the makeup of the parliament, Ukraine is entering the most unstable period – the formation of the ruling coalition. Although the Orange have declared their unshakable unity repeatedly, they may get into a fight over the division of portfolios.
The CEC had check finished processing 98 percent of the votes by last night. Five political force were elected to the new Rada and will split up 450 seats. The Blue will be the most represented. Having received 34.18 percent of the vote in the final count, Viktor Yanukovich's Party of the Regions can count on at least 173 places in the parliament. The Timoshenko Bloc received 3084 percent of the vote, which gives it 157 places. Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense also came out a political heavyweight, finishing with 14.29 percent. It will be represented by 73 MPs. The Communist Party lags far behind the favorites, with 5.36 percent, and the Litvin Bloc, headed by former Rada speaker Vladimir Litvin, received 3.95 percent. They will have 27 and 20 representatives, respectively.
Alexander Moroz's Socialist Party was balanced on the edge of the three-percent barrier last night, but remained in the cold with 2.90 percent. Lawyers for the party say that they are already preparing an appeal of the election results for the courts. The party is unlikely to achieve much, since most attention is being paid now to forming a ruling coalition and determining who will be part of it.
Party of the Regions representatives said yesterday with assurance that President Yushchenko would entrust them with forming the coalition, since they were the victors in the voting competition. The press service of the party even released a statement saying that negotiations had already begun on the formation of a ruling majority. Prime Minister Yanukovich, however, declined to specify with whom those negotiations were being held. Earlier he had said that he would invite “all parties and blocs that enter the Rada” to collaborate.
The Party of the Regions' hopes are not likely to come true. Although they are the formal victors, they essentially lost the elections. Throughout their election campaign, the Orange insisted that the majority in the new Rada would be exclusively democratic and there could be no other coalition than between the Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense. Yushchenko, furthermore, made it clear long before the elections that he liked the idea of Prime Minister Timoshenko.
That means that the Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense have already agreement between themselves on a coalition. They are in no position to change those plans now. If they conclude a coalition agreement, the Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense will have 230 of the 450 places in the Rada, while 226 is enough to name the prime minister.
The Party of the Regions cannot exceed that, even in a coalition with the Communists and Litvin Bloc. In that case, the troika would control 220 seats and would remain in the minority. Litvin is the weak link in that chain in any case. He is keeping his political preferences a secret. He stated yesterday that the decision of what coalition to enter into would be made by all the forces in his bloc (that is, the People's Party and the Labor Party) after the announcement of the final election results and after studying the campaign programs of all groups that enter the Rada. Then he went to visit Yushchenko's secretariat, mostly likely not for the purpose of picking up a copy of his election program.
Under Ukrainian law, the old Rada has to meet a last time after the CEC announces the official results of the elections to declare the termination of its powers. Then, within ten days, the date of the first session of the new parliament is to be announced and after that the parliamentarians will begin forming a coalition. That should be completed within 30 days. Only then can the parliamentary majority present a candidate for head of government to the president. Practice has shown that a lot can happen in Ukraine in that time. The yet-to-be-founded Orange collations could crumble, as it did after the parliamentary elections of 2006. At that time, Yushchenko had also excluded any possibility of negotiations with Yanukovich's party, but then signed a document called “The Universal of National Unity” with him without flinching, which kept Timoshenko away from him for a long time.
The Timoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense have decided only on a single candidate for prime minister, that is, Timoshenko, whose claims to the post never flagged. No one has decided about the remaining portfolios in the cabinet. Kommersant has learned that the Timoshenko Bloc is making claims to the economic bloc and is pressing for Alexander Turchinov, Timoshenko's right-hand man, as first deputy prime minister. Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defense is counting on receiving the enforcement bloc – the prosecutor general, tax police, Interior Ministry and Defense Ministry. The president appoints the defense and foreign ministers.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 03, 2007
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