Away from Russia, towards Europe
Russia is used to thinking of Ukraine’s politics as of something absurd and troubled, far from Russia’s current certainty. Russia’s political elite has already forgotten that the outcome of elections might be unpredictable, or that parties might enter long negotiations on creating the ruling coalition after the election results have been announced. For Ukraine, however, it is abnormal to have a directly opposite situation. For instance, when the presidential election’s outcome is known in advance, although nobody can name its main participant, and he is nominally called “the successor”.
Indeed, Ukrainian politicians are famous for their ambitiousness and weak ability to reach agreement. Yet, the results of the current election might become more important for Ukraine’s future than expected. If the orange forces and Litvin, a pragmatist of Kuchma times, form the parliamentary majority, then the new Cabinet might assume quite a determined stand which may be expressed in one phrase: “Away from Russia”. The current government of Yanukovych can hardly be called pro-Russian, but it is distancing itself from Moscow little by little, so as not to irritate Ukraine’s eastern neighbor. The possible coalition of Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Litvin, as a union of political rivals, can be united only by the ‘pro-West’ foreign policy vector. In that case, it might last longer than just several months, unlike Tymoshenko’s first government.
If a coalition like that is created, it will do its best to make Ukraine enter the WTO earlier than Russia. It will also push for a serious progress on the way of Atlantic integration. Ukraine’s plans to join NATO look unrealistic now. However, it was considered in mid-90s that Bulgaria and Romania would not be accepted into the alliance for many years more. Back then, it seemed these countries would not overcome their permanent embroilment soon: miners marched on Bucharest, and the right-wing opposition raised a revolt against the left-wing government in Sophia. Now, however, these countries have been NATO members for some years already, and have recently joined the EU.
Besides, that kind of Ukrainian coalition is incompatible with the scheme of natural gas cooperation with Russia. The scheme implies that Rosukrenergo company is its chief component. So, the slogan “Away from Russia” also means “Forward, to Europe”. Certainly, just most desperate euroromantics in Ukraine think the country would be able to enter the EU even in the mid-term perspective. Yet, they are ready to embark on that course if they obtain certain guarantees that they will be accepted into long-craved united Europe someday.
Politicians of Central and Eastern Europe agreed to impossible-looking compromises to lead their countries into the EU. In Bulgaria, socialists and former czar entered one government. In Slovakia, all kinds of different parties united against then prime minister Meciar, who was obstructed by Europe. So why Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Litvin should not follow the example?
Alexei Makarkin, deputy director general of the Political Technologies Center
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 02, 2007
|
