Vitaly Naumkin, president of the Center for Strategic and Political Research
Photo: Dmitry Kostyukov
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The Value of the Question
Vitaly Naumkin, president of the Center for Strategic and Political Research
“Don’t attack anything that starts with IRA,” one of my old friends, a retired American general, said. Is Washington really disregarding this adage and seriously preparing for military action against Tehran? Or are we merely observing a heated battle of words? All these unilateral sanctions from the US, threats and hysteria from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to New York, are they a preparation for war or psychological pressure? The Americans are prodding Tehran and Iran is readily participating in the skirmish, sometimes getting carried away. It’s not likely that President Ahmadinejad has made any new supporters in the world, especially among Palestinians, as he questions the Holocaust and refuses to support the Middle East peace process.
But we’ll see what actually happens in the region. I highly doubt that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp is supporting the Taliban, the sworn enemies of Shiite Iran. And there is no proof that the Guard is behind the Iraqi opposition; it’s unlikely that the Wahhabist wing or former Baathists are among Tehran’s supporters. The two largest Shiite parties in Iraq, which are religiously oriented toward Iran, are also the buttress of the Americans.
What kind of loss could this bring to Iran? The US figures that since the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp is the base of support for Ahmadinejad that they are taking on an ever-growing part in business (government contracts, oil drilling, construction of airports, roads, cell phone production, etc.). The idea is that Iran’s business partners, including Russia, will refrain from signing contracts in these sensitive areas. But this kind of pressure will not likely make Iranians more compliant. If anything just the opposite. Betting on a split in Iranian society is about as useless as is throwing money at programs defending human rights in Iran, which slows the natural process of democratization.
Earlier this month Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran Mohammad Bakiri accused the US of supporting Kurdish groups from Iraq engaged in military raids in Iran. He made it clear that Iranian troops were ready to cross the Iraqi boarder if the attacks continue. Accusations of double standards are also part of the information war.
I look at the watch with a golden depiction of Saddam that was given to me in Baghdad and I remember the sad fate of the dictator who made the fatal mistake of attacking a country whose name also started with IRA. Can it be that the superpower is willing to step on its own rake as well as that of the former Iraqi leader?
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 26, 2007
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