Professor Alexei Malashenko, expert of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, gives interview in his office.
Photo: Grigory Tambulov
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Peace March Might Lead to Anything but Peace
The 6th Congress of the Ossetian nation gathers in South Ossetia. Its purpose is to display the Ossetian nation’s unity. Moreover, it is “a crucial element of the reunion process”. Meanwhile, there appeared news about the ‘peace march’ planned by Georgia, which is to prevent the Ossetian nation’s reunion. If the march takes place, despite Tbilisi’s official contradictions, it will not bring positive results. Neither will the Ossetian congress. These events will lead to nothing but trouble. Yet, while the congress looks like a regular event, the peace march seems to be more provocative.
One peace march like that took place in 1989 and led to armed clashes, Tskhinvali’s blockade, and thousands of refugees. The international practice shows that ‘peace marches’ are useless in solving conflicts. Thus, back in the late 70s, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi undertook a peace march to Cairo. The crowd reached the border (it was delivered there in trucks), shouted, and went back.
The upcoming march will hardly be accompanied by shooting. However, it will exacerbate the Georgia-Ossetia and the Georgia-Russia relations. Russia’s Foreign Ministry admits of a possibility of a clash between the march participants and their opponents in South Ossetia. Besides, energetic and nervous guests arrive to the Ossetian congress from the so-called youth movements of Abkhazia, Transdniestria, and the Crimea. That public likes nothing better than to participate in heated events.
President Saakashvili is ready for such course of affairs. He needs to add weight to his reduced charisma, and to show his determination to the West. The latter is especially important, because Europe is growing more and more indifferent towards him.
Russian politicians are satisfied with the exacerbation of South Ossetia’s situation. In these restless pre-election times, they desperately want to acquire additional reason for rallying the society around them. Outer enemy always comes in handy. Even a small enemy like Georgia. For, if taken all together, enemies might overwhelm the common citizen, and remind him of the firm hand of authority. I’ve recently heard about a conspiracy of Georgia, the U.S., and bin Laden, who simply dreams of attacking South Ossetia. So, I admit there might be quite many people in the Kremlin who are applauding the eccentric Georgian leader.
The situation with South Ossetia and Abkhazia is more than complicated. And no ‘peace marches’ will help solve it. Sometimes, it seems that no one is seriously going to solve it at all. Georgia will never acknowledge the independence of former ‘autonomous republics’. Sukhumi and Tskhinvali cannot live within the Georgian state.
Georgia wants to join NATO, in hopes that it will frighten the Kremlin, and force it to make concessions. It is a mistake to think so. Moscow cannot be frightened. It will keep harping on, making silly things, but adhering to the chosen course. The point of the strategy is to procrastinate as long as possible the solution of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s issues. It is because Moscow might lose in either case: if their independence is recognized, or if they are brought back into Georgia’s structure.
Alexei Malashenko, expert of the Carnegie Center in Moscow
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 18, 2007
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