"The ruling party often wants to refresh itself, and it turns the tables in the end," says Alexey Makarkin
Photo: Dmitry Lebedev
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Let Them Step in Your Shoes
The Price of the Question
When analysts try to understand why Vladimir Putin does not want to run for the third term, they usually think it is because the president is too tired to amend the Russian Constitution. Or, he does not want to cause uproar in G8 countries where leaders do not normally get their powers prolonged. Both arguments sound convincing, but we can add one more. It is the prospect of obsolescence, a pressing problem for any political figure who wields power in a country with any kind of popular vote and at least a theoretical possibility of an alternative to the incumbent leader. In the so-called Successor Operation Vladimir Putin strives to give a facelift to his regime, which will help him not only avoid “obsolescence” but also return to power fresh and new.
Voters get tired of well-known politicians in old democratic countries as well. A good example can be found in Australia which has been run by Prime Minister John Howard for the past 11 years. In 2004, he brought the ruling Liberal party-led coalition to a fourth straight win. But recent opinion polls show that Liberals may lose the upcoming election. Quite predictably, Mr. Howard’s allies suggested replacing the prime minister by a younger Peter Costello. John Howard, however, says he won’t quit thinking that voters will support him for the fifth time.
Australian Liberals evidently try to copy a move of the British Labor party which replaced Prime Minister Tony Blair by Treasurer Gordon Brown improving their rating and beating Conservatives, their old rivals. But Brits had a lesson to learn. In 1990, Margaret Thatcher would not want to stand down after serving 11 years as prime minister like John Howard. Conservatives forced her resignation and nominated a less charismatic but “fresher” John Major for prime minister which brought Conservatives to victory. With this example, Mr. Blair thought it would be the right thing to leave voluntarily, with all honors and a new post of a Middle East peacemaker. Australia has not had such effective party coups in recent years. This is probably the reason why John Howard feels quite confident and does not want to leave his premier’s seat.
Modern politics has become a kind of show. Its leading characters are often ranked in popularity ratings along with film and pop stars. But audience needs new idols, under show business rules. Them former “first lovers” start playing “noble fathers” while newcomers take their place. Elites are changed in politics under similar laws which do not always come down to the traditional scheme of power transfer from the ruling party to opposition. The ruling party often wants to refresh itself, and it turns the tables in the end. Chirac are replaced by Sarkozy, Blair by Brown. Time will show if Australia succeeds in copying this scenario.
Alexey Makarkin, deputy director general of the Center for Political Technologies
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 14, 2007
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