"Trade balance is currently the chief uncertainty factor,” says Andrei Klepach, director of the macroeconomic prognosis department at the Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry.
Photo: Ilya Pitalev
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Exports Inch Up, Imports Soar
Exports from Russia went up 6.8 percent to $27 billion in June, against the indicator last June, the Central Bank said in a trade balance report on Friday. Imports rose 27 percent to $18.5 billion.
Galloping imports and moderate exports are cutting Russia’s foreign trade surplus on a record-high pace. Trade surplus dropped to $8.6 billion in June, the lowest mark since March 2005’s $9.6 billion, according to the Central Bank.
Economists started warning long ago that exports and its revenues can no longer act as fuel for Russia’s economic growth. “Trade balance is currently the chief uncertainty factor,” says Andrei Klepach, director of the macroeconomic prognosis department at the Economic Development and Trade Ministry. “In 2006, surplus in the balance of payment was $140 billion in 2006, but in 2010 it may reach zero.” Should this come true, the narrowing trade surplus will cut an inflow of petrodollars as well as resources to finance the country’s economic growth. “Capital then will become the growth resource,” says Evgeny Gavrilenko from the Troika Dialog investment first.
At the same time, Russian financial officials are expecting the ruble to finish its upward movement. Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexey Ulyukaev predicts that by 2010 or 2011 the real ruble exchange rate will stop growing. Russia’s Economic Development and Trade Ministry, in its turn, says that “the exchange rate will be 26.2 rubles for $1 in 2007 and 27 rubles by the end of 2010.” Under a less probable scenario with a faster decline in exports, the rate will climb to 32.7 rubles against $1 by the end of 2010.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 13, 2007
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