Attracted to the Same Pole
The triumph of the Arctic 2007 expedition that planted the Russian flag on the floor of the polar sea caused jubilation in Russia and undisguised animosity among those who do not support Russia's ambitions in the ocean. That is natural, writes Vlast analytical weekly's Shamil Idiatullin, since Russia's arctic plunge is the latest manifestation of its familiar national idea.
Last week, the members of the Arctic 2007 expedition, led by prominent polar explorer, United Russia Party member and State Duma member Artur Chilingarov, returned to Moscow. The expedition sent two submersibles more than four kilometers underwater to set up a titanium flag on the bottom, scrape up a pail of soil and fill two tanks of water. Expedition members stated that the are not only the first in history to reach the seafloor at the northernmost latitude, but they gathered material that may help prove that the Russian continental shelf extends to the pole, which means that Russia is the owner of most of the unbelievably large reserves of natural gas and oil in the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean. The United States has cast doubt on that claim, and Canada has stated that the pole belongs to it. The Russian media have taken it on themselves to explain the happiness that Arctic wealth will guarantee the country, while the world press has indignantly declared Moscow a landgrabber.
In reality, Chilingarov's journey to the Arctic Ocean, through which, rather far from the Lomonosov Ridge and, consequently from the purported Russian continental shelf, the pole runs, was undertaken not so much to graft the Arctic onto Siberia as for the sake of politics, propaganda and entertainment, all of which are a skimpy mask over economic interests. That does not mean, however, that conquering the polar depths was a lark.
The dive by the Mir 1 and Mir 2 submersibles was the latest, and rather successful, step by the Russian elite in their pursuit of a national idea. The doctrine of sovereign democracy, no matter how you paint it, is captivating only to particularly unctuous party functionaries. No Russian ideal can be squeezed from it. But there is an old and respected ideal: they may not love us, but they'll fear us. It means we're no lightweights; and to fear us is to respect us. We have already lived in such a country, and everything was bigger and better then. There is absolutely no need to rebuild the dictatorship of the people, undergo another round of industrialization and collectivization, purges, and other things from which the superpower rose. Clothes make the man, and a non-great country can become great by acquiring the attributes of greatness.
This acquisition began, apparently, when then-prime minister Evgeny Primakov turned his plane around over the Atlantic in 1999, canceling his trip to Washington to ask for financial aid due to the eminent beginning of the NATO operation in Yugoslavia. That was followed by the sudden advance of Russian troops into Pristina. Imperial logic is outward-looking. Soviet ideologues believed that true state happiness was to be found on the Island of Freedom, on the Black Continent, in Antarctica and on Mars. The Soviet Union was ankle deep in filth and living on coupons. But it sent food and builders to Asia and Africa. Russia learned the lesson. Last year, while Yakutia was paralyzed by impassible roads, a division of Russian military engineers rebuilt roads in Lebanon. And, while forest fires burned in Yakutia, Sakhalin, Chita Region and Chukotka, Russian firefighters were at work in Greece and Montenegro (not for free, of course, but that's not the point).
Recent achievements have been even more obviously Soviet-inspired. The Olympics, for instance, are destined to be a celebration of Russian sports, friendship of the peoples and inconvenience for local residents. The polar explorers have hit an even richer vein, finding a place alongside Soviet literary hero Capt. Tatarinov, the icebreaker Chelyuskin, Soviet polar explorer and gun-lover Ivan Papanin and Valery Chkalov's nonstop flight over the Pole to Vancouver, Washington, U.S.A. Very nice that most of the expenses for this propaganda for Russian ambitions were paid by the Swede and Australian on board the second submersible. It is time to get used to foreign aid. If Russia cannot develop the Stockman deposit by itself, it is hard to believe that it will be able to cope with the production and transport of the even more remote and inaccessible Arctic wealth.
That is, of course, unless quantity finally turns to quality, and Soviet achievements such as student construction teams (which Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov recently mentioned), ramrod space programs, the Ready for Labor and the Defense of the Soviet Union fitness program and the Society for Cooperation in Defense and Chemical and Aviation Development of the USSR are revived and turn the country into something great and powerful. Impetus for that transition is given not only by general aesthetic considerations, but also by the actions of competitors in the Arctic, headed by the U.S., that have joyfully taken up the Russian idea about the polar shelf. Knowing American inclinations and capabilities, it can be assumed that Washington will soon discover its own continental shelf in the seabeds of all the oceans it can get to and scientifically confirm that not only the Arctic, but Eurasia, Africa and Australia are also natural zones of American interest. Then the discuss of spheres of influence will return to the level they were on in the 1950s and 1960s. That will create glee for those who consider that era the golden age of Russian history.
Underwater Undercurrents
Soviet scientists began the geological study of the Arctic shelf in the 1970s and were the first to suggest that there may be oil and gas deposits there. In 1997, that research was renewed and Russia began to study the geological composition of the seabed for signs that it belonged to the mainland and for deposits. In 1999, Viktor Orlov, then minister of natural resources, stated that the potential of the Russian Arctic shelf within its 1926 borders (which had already been superseded by then) amounted to 88billion tons of fuel equivalent. In June 2007, director of the All-Russia Scientific Oceanic Geology Research Institute Valery Kaminsky reported that the Arctic 2007 expedition, which he led, estimated that hydrocarbon reserves in the area of the shelf being disputed in the United Nations consisted of 9-10 billion tons of fuel equivalent, about two-thirds of the world's annual consumption. That conclusion was based on deep seismic soundings and other sophisticated methods. According to the Oceanic Geology Institute, the development of the shelf may bring Russia more than $200 billion, although it will take 10-15 years to achieve. Foreign specialists are interested in those reserves as well. The U.S. Geological Survey says that 25 percent of the world's undiscovered reserves of oil and gas are in that region. Experts from the Wood Mackenzie and Fugro Robertson companies have concluded that 85 percent of the undiscovered reserves of the Arctic are gas, and most of the deposits are on Russian territory. The Karsk and Barents Sea are the most promising for oil, with reserves of 90 billion and 10 billion barrels, respectively. The northern shelf of Alaska alone contains about 6 billion barrels. The same sources say that the maximum possible production in the Arctic is 3 million barrels of oil (the rate of the United Arab Emirates) and 800 million cu. m. of natural gas (more than half of the current rate in Russia) per day. It will take n less than 20 years to set up production.
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The Battle for the Arctic
Before the beginning of the 20th century, the Arctic countries (Russia, the United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark) utilized only the shores of the Arctic Ocean and no one claimed the ocean's surface or floor. In 1909, Canada was the first to claim legislative the territory from its Arctic Sea shore to the North Pole. In 1924, the U.S. also made claims on the Arctic, stating that the Pole is an underwater continuation of Alaska. In 1926, the USSR defined the borders of its possessions from the Kola Peninsula across the North Pole to the Bering Strait. The U.S., Canada, Norway and Denmark did not protest that act. Thus, the basic norms of international law in which the Arctic was divided into sectors up to the Pole were in place in the 1920s, without international agreements to reflect them. That situation went unchallenged for a long time. In 1982, the UN passed the Convention on the Law of the Sea, which came into force in 1994 and does not reflect the principle of division. That document allowed states to expand their 200-mile exclusive economic zones. If a country considers its continental shelf (the sea bottom to the end of the continent) to extend more than 200 miles, it can file papers with the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf to have its economic zone extended up to 60 miles beyond the edge of the shelf.
All of the Arctic countries except the U.S. have ratified the convention. Norway did so in 1996, Russia in 1997, Canada in 2003 and Denmark in 2004.
In 2000, after the Russian Ministries of Natural Resources and Defense's Arctic 2000 expedition, it was announced that the Lomonosov and Mendeleev Ridges are continuations of the continent and the Arctic continental shelf of Russia is 1.2 million sq. km. large than previously thought. In 2001, Moscow filed an application with the UN for the expansion of its continental shelf. The UN did not reject that application, but it did ask for addition proof of the continental nature of the ridges.
In 2004, the Danish Ministry of Science reported that the Lomonosov Ridge is a continuation of Greenland, but Copenhagen did not apply to the UN. In 2006, Norway filed an application for 250,000 sq. km. of the shelf in the Norwegian and Barents Seas.
In May and June of this year, Oceanic Geology Institute staff members spent 43 days on the icebreaker Rossiya studying the Lomonosov Ridge as part of Arctic 2007. It was that expedition, unnoticed by society, that gathered the evidence of Russia's rights to 1.2 million sq. km. of the Arctic. Arctic 2007 director Kaminsky established that “The shelf and the ridge forma whole, a single geological structure.” That means that “We can prove most of our application.” On August 2, a dive to the bottom of the sea near the North Pole was carried out. It was officially called “the second stage of Arctic 2007.” Dive leader Chilingarov reported new findings on Russia's ownership of the North Pole.
On August 6, the U.S. icebreaker Healy was sent to the Arctic chart the ocean floor. Denmark and Canada announced similar plans.
Alexander Kukolevsky, Olga Shkurenko
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 13, 2007
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