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July 23, 2007
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The Russian Investment Boom Continues
Capital investment showed record growth in June, rising 27.2 percent over June of last year in real terms (adjusted for price changes), to 579.8 billion rubles, with construction leading the way. That is a rise of 58 percent in nominal terms and a better showing than in China. Modern Russia has never before seen such a growth rate. While the rate of investment in Russia rose 22.3 percent in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, the increase last year of that period in 2005 was only 11 percent.
Economists expect the tendency to continue. The statistics significantly exceed both the conservative prognoses of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and less conservative independent analyses. One expert noted that foreign investment in the first quarter of the year, $24.6 billion, was almost three times higher than the Economics Ministry's prediction. According to Interfax, the consensus among analysts at the end of last month 15.3-percent growth compared to last year.

Analysts note that state investment is also a moving force behind the growth, and that it will continue to be so. The investment program of RAO UED of Russia alone is 520.5 billion rubles. Nonetheless, investments made from the federal budget account for only about 20 percent of the total, just under 4 percent of the GDP. Foreign investment for the first half of the year totaled $67 billion, and domestic banks granted industry 6.9 trillion rubles in credit. Nonetheless, economists say that, unlike in China, there are no signs of overheating of the economy detectible until at least the middle of next year.


All the Article in Russian as of July 23, 2007

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