By signing the moratorium on the CFE, Russian President Vladimir Putin (in the photo) has taken the first step toward reconsidering the political and military agreements of the last 15 years.
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin
| Other Photos |
 |
|
 |
An Order for Non-Immediate Action
// Russia imposes a moratorium on the CFE
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reversed his decree on Russia's implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe. Formally, that is the Kremlin's answer to the West's refusal to sign the revised version of the outdated agreement. The moratorium may be the first step in a reexamination by Russia of the disadvantageous military and political situation that has arisen in the last 15 years.
The president's decision to stop Russia's implementation of the CFE became known on Saturday, when the president's website announced that he had signed an order to that effect. A source close to the Kremlin said that the order was approved by the president a month ago, immediately after the failure of the emergency CFE conference in Vienna.
Moscow saw that forum as the last chance to revive the CFE after the West did not react to the threat made by Putin in his address to the Federal Assembly in May to impose a moratorium on the treaty. In Vienna, however, Western countries rejected Russia's plan to “restore the treaty's viability.” A key point in Russia's plan was the ratification of a modified CFE, to which it tied Russia's implementation of the Istanbul Agreements on the full withdrawal of Russian forces from Moldova and Georgia. As a result, they were unable to agree even on a document on the results of the conference.
According to Kommersant's source, a decree was presented to the president for his signature after that. The announcement of the decision was delayed to avoid casting a shadow over the meeting between the Russian and American presidents in Kennebunkport on July 1-2 and the vote on the 2014 Olympics.
Moscow began preparing the West for the moratorium immediately after the failed Vienna conference. In June, a polite excuse was found to refuse a military delegation from Hungary and Bulgaria access to Russian military units. At the same time, Russia declined an invitation to participate in joint exercises with the United States, Romania and Bulgaria.
Finally the Kremlin decided that it was time to announce the decree. The Russian Foreign Ministry explained what the moratorium means. “We will not accept inspections and will not send out our inspection groups. We will not provide the information that we are providing today and we will not be tied to quantitative limitations,” it declared.
In the informational material accompanying the order, it is written that Russia was compelled to take that step by “exceptional circumstances that arose around the treaty.” It is also stated that the moratorium will remain in effect “until NATO countries ratify that agreement on revision and begin to implement the document in good conscience.”
Thus the Kremlin makes it clear that the formal goal of the moratorium is to press the West to ratify the revised CFE. But Moscow's real intentions are not limited to that.
During Putin's recent visit to Greece, he said that the possibility of withdrawing from the CFE (along with tests of new missiles) would be a response to the unilateral actions of Russia's partners in the treaty, such as withdrawal from the ABM treaty and placement of missile defense elements in Europe. Thus, the introduction of a moratorium on the CFE is mainly a response by Moscow to U.S. plans to place a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.
It became clear at the summit in Kennebunkport that the U.S. and Russia would never really find accord on the issue. Putin developed the proposal he first made to U.S. President George W. Bush at the G8 summit, adding to the idea of using the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan the offer of “including the station being built [in Armavir] for warning of missile launches in the general system.” But Bush indicated in Kennebunkport that the facilities in the Czech Republic and Poland would have to be integrated into the system. A week after the summit, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice officially rejected Putin's proposal.
By imposing the moratorium on CFE, Russia is using one of its main pressure points in its disagreement with the U.S. on missile defense. That is Western Europe's worries about a new burst of U.S.-Russian tensions, now with the prospect of having the Russian Army on its borders without being able to inspect it. That may help Russia in the missile defense game against the U.S.
That is apparently not all the Kremlin was thinking of when it imposed the moratorium either. When Russia demanded that an urgent conference be held on the CFE, it cited exceptional circumstances. As the Russia Foreign Ministry explained to Kommersant, that four factors can be considered exceptional. They are the facts that NATO's expansion has led to a significant excess of the amount of weapons allowed it under the treaty; the U.S. has “substantial military forces” on bases in Bulgaria and Romania, which is prohibited under the treaty; Western countries are not proceeding with the ratification of the revised version of the treaty; and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are not participating in the treaty, even though it was agreed with NATO before they joined that alliance that they would.
It can be seen from that list that Moscow is unhappy with more than just the West's refusal to ratify the new version of the treaty. It is essentially dissatisfied by the by the military and political development of the world in the last 15 years, a time that is now being called Russia's weak period. If that is so, attempts by Moscow to reconsider other treaties between the Russian Federation and the West concluded at that time can be expected. The first move in that direction may be Russia's withdrawal from the CFE, as chairman of the Federation Council Defense and Security Committee Viktor Ozerov hinted yesterday.
Kommersant sources say that Moscow was expecting a loud outcry from the West when it imposed the moratorium in the CFE. But the initial Western reaction, although negative, was mild. NATO and the European Union expressed “regret,” since the CFE is “a fundamental document for stability in Europe.” White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, “We're disappointed Russia has suspended its participation for now but we'll continue to have discussions with them in the coming months on the best way to proceed in this area.”
U.S. administration sources say that Washington's is tying its hope to the fact that the CFE moratorium will come into force officially 150 days after Russia informs the other signatories of its decision. In the meantime, the White House has serious plans to dissuade Russia from its intentions. But December, when presidential election campaigning will be in full swing in Russia, is unlikely to be a promising time for reaching a compromise with the U.S.
Dmitry Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of July 16, 2007
|
|
|
