Sergei Lavrov Plays Up to Hamas
// Russian Foreign Minister May Frustrate Israel's Plan
Yesterday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Israel for an official visit. The visit, which was supposed to strengthen Moscow's position in the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, instead took on somewhat of a scandalous character. Moscow's proposal for reviving dialogue between Fatah and Hamas, which Mr. Lavrov was charged with delivering to the Israeli leadership, could disrupt Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's new peace plan, which aims at providing assistance to Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas while isolating Hamas. Kommersant correspondent Grigory Asmolov has the details from Jerusalem.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's itinerary for his trip to the Middle East includes meetings with his Israeli counterpart Tzippi Livni, recently-elected Israeli President Shimon Peres, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Mr. Lavrov's talks with the Israeli and Palestinian leaders were scheduled for today.
Remarkably, Sergei Lavrov's visit to the Middle East was not planned very far in advance. Accorded to Israeli sources, news of the Russian official's plan to hold talks in Jerusalem broke only last week. Observers in Israel immediately linked Moscow's initiative with a recent upswing in international mediation efforts aimed at reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. The latest step in that direction was the summit held the day before Mr. Lavrov's visit, which brought together the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and Israel in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. All of the participants pledged their full support for Mahmoud Abbas in the wake of a schism in the PA that has given rise to a rival government headed by former Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayad in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
According to a Kommersant source in Jerusalem, Sergei Lavrov's visit should primarily be seen as a demonstration of Moscow's intent to preserve its central role in the Middle East peace process regardless of the level of Russia's participation in the so-called Quartet of Middle East negotiators, which includes the US, the EU, Russia, and the UN.
However, Mr. Lavrov's current mission appears to be particularly complicated. The Israeli authorities are not taking any pains to hide the existence of a fundamental rift with Moscow over such questions as how to deal with Hamas after the recent split in the Palestinian Authority and the seizure of the Gaza Strip by Hamas militants.
At the same time, observers have noted a growing sense of disillusionment among Israeli leaders over Russia's continued refusal to recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization and its insistence on dialogue with the Islamists. Jerusalem is at a loss to understand how this policy jibes with Russia's participation in the Quartet and its opinions concerning the efforts of Mahmoud Abbas.
Moscow's position on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not changed despite the division of Palestine between Hamas and Fatah. Russia is still in favor of talks with all sides, including Hamas, believing that to be the most constructive path out of the crisis. "The priority right now is to help stop this fratricidal conflict and, through political dialogue oriented according to the principles of the Quartet and the Mecca agreement, to reunify Palestine," said a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman on the eve of Sergei Lavrov's visit to Jerusalem (the talks in Mecca led to the creation of the now-defunct national unity government in Palestine).
In the past, Israel, satisfied that Moscow is prepared to observe the conditions of the Mid-East Quartet (demanding that Hamas recognize Israel, abide by signed agreements, and renounce terrorist tactics), has been able to react calmly to such statements. Following the armed Hamas insurrection in Gaza, however, Moscow's stance runs counter to the new plan to normalize relations with Palestine that is being pushed by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
After Islamists militants seized power in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli leader embarked on a new course in relation to Palestine. Until now, Jerusalem has not agreed to talks with the Palestinians, since the Palestinian national unity government included representatives of both Fatah and Hamas. This strategy kept the Israelis from talking to Mahmoud Abbas, for fear that such negotiations would lead to concessions to Hamas that would be unacceptable for Israel. However, after the recent bloodbath in Gaza, the split in the national unity government and the creation of a new Hamas-led government in Gaza has allowed Israel to make a distinction between Fatah and Hamas that is not only political but also geographical. From the point of view of the Israeli government, this may finally be able to rescue the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue from its current dead end.
From now on, the West Bank, which is under the control of Fatah, will be for Israel an enclave of peaceful Palestinian factions and a prototype of a future Palestinian state. The Gaza Strip, on the other hand, is now considered a citadel of radical Islam that deserves to be isolated as much as possible.
In order to strengthen the Palestinian president as a counterweight to Hamas, Ehud Olmert announced in Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday that Israel will make several concessions, including unfreezing Palestinian accounts, removing several military checkpoints in the West Bank, and releasing 250 Palestinian prisoners who are Fatah activists. With these steps, Jerusalem wants to show the Palestinians that only peaceful leaders can achieve improvements in the lot of ordinary Palestinians and that the Islamists are only worsening the situation for the civilian population.
Under these circumstances, the most dangerous scenario for Israel would involve renewed dialogue between Fatah and Hamas. According to the logic of the Israeli side, if Mahmoud Abbas decides at some point to scrap his current boycott of Hamas, the Islamist revolution in the Gaza Strip will suddenly be on the right side of the law and Israel will again find itself facing the deadlock represented by a two-headed Palestinian Authority. In the end, such a scenario could end in a complete seizure of power by Hamas in the West Bank as well as in the Gaza Strip. From the Israelis' point of view, that would deal a fatal blow to the peace process.
Significantly, one of the topics of Sergei Lavrov's visit to the Middle East was the possible delivery of 60 Russian armored personnel carriers to the West Bank. While Israel previously opposed that move, fearing that the vehicles could fall into the hands of Hamas, now their delivery to Mahmoud Abbas is completely in line with Israel's new policy of backing the Palestinian president against Hamas by all possible means. Mr. Lavrov will also meet with the families of three kidnapped Israeli soldiers (Gilad Shalit in Gaza and Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in Lebanon) this morning. Both of these steps are clearly aimed at pouring oil on the troubled waters of the relationship between Russia and Israel on the question of the Mid-East peace process.
Grigory Asmolov (Jerusalem)
All the Article in Russian as of June 27, 2007
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