President of Russia Vladimir Putin (left), Chancellor of Germany of Angela Merkel (center), U.S President George W. Bush (third right), Prime Minister of Great Britain Tony Blair (second right) and Prime Minister of Italy Romano Prodi (right) at the G8 summit in Heiligendamm.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Been There, Done That
// The price of the question
Not everybody remembers the phrase “the Soviet Union proposed a new peace initiative” any more. Nor is its meaning clear to all, because a “peace initiative” in this context is not the same as a peace plan. The Soviet leadership advanced peace initiatives not to reduce international tension, but to place the American leadership in an uncomfortable position. For example, the USSR proposes destroying a certain number of nuclear warheads. It knows that that will be unacceptable to the United States. The Americans refuse, allowing the USSR to demonstrate convincing to progressive humanity (to use the phraseology of the times) where the threat to peace comes from.
I remembered all of that after Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to the Americans that they use the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan. There are reports that U.S. President George W. Bush first heard the suggestion in a telephone conversation with Putin at the end of April. Washington brushed it off at the time. Then the proposal was made publicly, and loudly, a the G8 summit. That's when it became a peace initiative. A Western journalist compared it to a well executed judo chop. It looks to me more like a fast kick in the groin. Two people approach each other, seem to talk for a moment, then one of them leaves with a smile and the other crouches in pain and tries not to wince.
In any case, it has to be admitted that the blow was executed cleanly. If the Americans reject the Russian offer, their game is up. If they want to defend themselves against Iranian missiles, then they need nothing more than the radar station and missiles located to the south. (Putin suggested Turkey or Iraq.) Now Washington faces a difficult task. It has to justify creating bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. The State Department is clearly at a loss. We began negotiations with the Poles and Czechs, they say. We gave them hope, it would be inconvenient to withdraw. It sound completely unconvincing. The administration will soon have to explain to its Democratic opponents and its European allies why it won't agree to the Gabala plan. So sooner or later the White House will have to admit that it wants to track missiles fired in Russia as well.
That is the moment of truth. The U.S. doesn't trust Russia and, as in the years of the Cold War, does not exclude the possibility of a global nuclear war between Russia and the U.S. Russia is also looking at the U.S. as a potential opponent as well and is preparing “adequate but asymmetrical measures” in response to U.S. challenges. That means only one thing: we have returned to the past in many ways, to the eras of nuclear containment. That is where the Kremlin's peace initiative and the White House's new star wars come from as well. We can only hope for a new detente.
Leonid Gankin
All the Article in Russian as of June 13, 2007
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