U.S. President George W. Bush promised Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha (right) that independence for Kosovo was close, but did not say how or when it would come.
Photo: AP
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The Presidents Take Three Weeks
// Bush takes an assignment home with him
George W. Bush has completed his European tour. In the United States and in Poland, Italy, Albania and Bulgaria they understand that his trip was a strategic meeting with his allies in the course of a continuing standoff with Russia.
Independence Delayed
The highlight of his European trip was Bush's trip to Albania. There are few other places where the U.S. president has been so ecstatically received. As he goes into retirement next year, he will be able to remember two such greetings: in Tbilisi and in Tirana.
The delighted Albanian crowd had a very specific expectation from the American president. They had been waiting a long time for a statement about the independence of Kosovo, and they were not disappointed. "At some point in time sooner rather than later you've got to say 'Enough is enough. Kosovo is independent' and that's the position we've taken," Bush told them.
He also admitted to two facts with that statement. First, he failed to reach an agreement on Kosovo at the G8 summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin – possibly there was simply not enough time. Second, the U.S. is prepared to recognize the independence of Kosovo unilaterally. Bush also spoke about the immediate solution of the problem through Kosovo's independence in Rome and Sofia.
While the Albanians were hugging and kissing Bush, Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica was in St. Petersburg. He went to the economic forum there to meet with Putin and find out what was said on the subject of Kosovo's independence at the G8 summit. Putin told the Serbian leader that Russia will not make an agreement with the U.S. on Kosovo under the present circumstances. And it will block a UN Security Council resolution granting Kosovo independence. “I will tell you about our discussion of the problem at the G8 summit with pleasure,” the Russian president said. “I have to say that our views on the problem are contrary to those of our colleagues in the G8.”
After his talks with Putin, Kostunica got a second wind. He has been using Kosovo in his political rhetoric for a long time, saying that its separation from Serbia is unacceptable. But he left the talks with Putin in elation. “Serbia rightly objects to the American policy on Kosovo,” he said excitedly when he returned to Belgrade. “America should find another way to show it love for Albanians than tearing apart the Serbian land. Unilateral support for the independence of Kosovo will be a new mistake, a new act of violence, that the Serbian people will never forget.”
Russia's stubbornness is a big problem for Kosovo and the European Union. While the Albanians in Tirana were pleased with the repetition of the same promises, the Kosovar Albanians in Pristina reacted differently. The current Kosovar government has said repeatedly and at all levels that its independence is about to be declared and recognized. Therefore Kosovar leaders are losing patience. They were as dissatisfied with the ineffective G8 summit, at which not a word was said about Kosovar independence, as the Serbian prime minister was with Bush's speech in Tirana. Kosovar Prime Minister Agim Ceku warned the West that its inability to keep its promise to Kosovar Albanians is causing them to lose faith in it. Kosovar Deputy Prime Minister Lutfi Haziri went even further. “It cannot be ruled out that we will unilaterally declare independence,” he said.
Kosovar leaders have never been closer to that than now. They are itching to do it. That would leave the EU no way out. The current UN administration in Kosovo is temporary. By UN resolution, it will exist in the territory only as long as Kosovo's status is undecided, that is, until the next resolution is passed. Until very recently, the plan was for the temporary administration to pack its bags and get out of Pristina just as soon as the UN recognized Kosovo. The it would be the EU's burden to support the new state. But if there will be no resolution, the picture changes. There will be no occasion for the UN administration to leave Kosovo, and that means that there will be two administrations in the territory. The Kosovar administration will most likely announce that it will exercise it full authority and no longer tolerate its UN controllers, who have gotten tiresome in the last eight years. The EU will not be able to provide promised aid or take over from the UN, since it has stated repeatedly that it will not do anything without UN sanction.
Such a dead end situation is what the Russian authorities are predicting, and they would probably not mind if it happened, since it would show Europe how dependent it is on the position of Moscow. That would come in handy for Moscow right now. It would also cause a schism in Europe. Not all European countries are as enthusiastic about Kosovar independence as the U.S. is. France and Germany favor independence, while Italy, Spain and Greece are cooler toward the idea. Seeding disagreement within the EU would also useful to Moscow.
A Delayed Answer
The most serious settling of issues between U.S. President George W. Bush and Putin will come in three weeks when they meet at the home of former president George H.W. Bush in Kennebunkport, Maine. That is where the two leaders will reach their finally agreement, or disagreement, on how to solve the Kosovo problem. That will obviously be closely tied to another problem in Russian-American relations: antiballistic defenses in Europe.
President Bush responded noncommittally in Poland and Bulgaria to President Putin's suggestion of using the Gabala radar in Azerbaijan instead of creating a missile defense system. He expressed willingness to use the radar station, calling it a process that would be mutually advantageous in Sofia. But Washington never saw the proposal as an alternative to a missile defense system in Europe, and it made that clear. The idea of joint operations has been under discussion since the end of March and the White House has said the whole time that it will be glad to use the station, as well as the radar in the Czech Republic and the antiballistic missiles in Poland.
The negotiations in Poland, which Bush flew to immediately after the G8, passed without mention of the radar station at Gabala. Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski stated after the negotiations that the U.S. and Poland were close to an agreement on placing the missile defense system. He thought that Putin was playing a role. “Not so long ago, President Putin claimed that the situation itself [the placement of antiballistic missiles in Poland] was dangerous, and he threatened us with a nuclear bomb. The fact that he os playing a role is nothing new for us,” Kaczynski commented.
American officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, that the Russia proposal was not an adequate substitute for the planned antiballistic system. The Gabala radar station, unlike the radar station in the Czech Republic can track a missile launched by Iran at the U.S. only for the first few minutes of its flight. Then the missile will leave the stations range, since it is located very close to the Iranian border. In spite of that, Bush has not formally replied to the offer yet. According to Russian Chief of Staff Yury Baluevsky, that reply is expected while Putin is at Kennebunkport. That means that Russia and the U.S. will tread softly for another three weeks. And after the meeting of the presidents another standoff will begin.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of June 13, 2007
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