U.S. Not to Give Up Deploying Missile Defense in Europe
The U.S. actually rejected on Friday the offer of Russian President Vladimir Putin to give up the plans of deploying a U.S. missile defense radar system in Europe. Washington does not exclude the possibility of the joint use of the Gabalin radar in Azerbaijan, but will continue deploying missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic.
“We are continuing our discussions with the Czech Republic and Poland, we are continuing our discussions in NATO,” U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Friday. “We will do what is best from the point of view of actually dealing with the security problem. One does not choose sites for missile defense out of the blue. It's geometry and geography as to how you intercept a missile.” She added that Washington does not decline the offer to cooperate with Moscow in Azerbaijan, but deploying missile defense in Europe will remain its priority. Rice said that using the Gabalin radar “is an idea that has not yet been rejected”. “We have to see whether Azerbaijan makes any sense in the context of missile defense,” she said.
U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s spokesman Rick Lehner explained the reason why Rice was so confident: “I do not know whether any research or estimation was carried out for Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, it was after studying the territory of entire Europe that we considered it necessary to deploy the radar and the missile interceptors precisely in Poland and the Czech Republic.” The matter is, Poland and the Czech Republic are located on the predicted flight trajectory of a ballistic missile launched by Iran towards Washington.
Doubts of the Americans concerning the Gabalin radar’s aptitude are quite explicable. In fact, the radar cannot replace the planned missile defense facilities in Europe, because it does not carry out the required functions. Thus, the X-Band Radar to be installed in the Czech Republic is multifunctional: it can track targets and simultaneously aim GBI interceptor missiles, which will be based in Poland. Meanwhile, the Gabalin radar is unable to aim missiles, it can only track targets. That is, the U.S. will have to build a new kind of radar anyway, no matter whether in Azerbaijan or in the Czech Republic.
Russia’s offer failed to interest NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Sheffer either. In his opinion, Azerbaijan is too close to the countries which threaten the West’s security: “It is early to make final conclusions on the issue yet. However, it will probably be too close to rogue states.” Sheffer meant that the Gabalin radar is too close to Iran’s border, about 650 kilometers away from Tehran. Thus, a ballistic missile launched from Iran will be tracked by the Gabalin radar much earlier than by a Czech radar, but it will remain in the Gabalin’s zone for just a few minutes, during the launch and right after it. Then the missile will escape from its zone, leaving no means to track its further trajectory.
U.S. President George Bush also tried to justify the need of deploying the missile defense elements. On the last day of the G8 summit, he assured the missile defense system to appear in Europe will not threaten Russia. His main argument was that the interceptor missiles to be installed in Poland will be unable to neutralize more than one long-range ballistic missile, while Russia has “a huge arsenal of nuclear missiles, which the system will be absolutely unable to intercept”. “The fact is, you cannot intercept two, three, four or five missiles,” said Bush after his meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair. “So, it is not a threat to Russia.”
Russia’s geographic map and preliminary estimations also confirm George Bush’s reasoning. Russian missiles, if they were launched towards the U.S., would fly in north-east direction: the shortest way goes thru the North Pole. The Earth’s rotation would help them shorten the distance. U.S. interceptor missiles to be installed in Poland would be farther to the west. So, they would have to catch up with the Russian ballistic missiles, but they would not have enough speed or flight range for that.
Apparently, this position of the U.S. is unacceptable for Russia. The matter is, a radar in the Czech Republic will be able to track missile launches at nearly the whole Russia’s territory. Vladimir Putin insisted that the Gabalin radar might become not just a supplement to the U.S. missile defense system in Europe, but an alternative to it. “If necessary, we are ready to modernize the Gabalin radar. We do not see such necessity now, but we are ready to do it. In this case, our colleagues no longer need to send attack groups to space, which is a real threat to the global security. In this case, it is unnecessary to build a new radar in the Czech Republic and to deploy missiles in Poland,” Putin believes.
According to the Russian president, the radar in Azerbaijan is to replace the planned one in the Czech Republic, while no interceptors at all are needed so far. U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley described Putin’s offer in the following way: in his opinion, cooperation in the radar sphere is enough, while using interceptors is early yet. They should be developed and created only when Iran or another state become able to produce their own long-range ballistic missiles. “We are concerned about the fact that installing a missile defense system always takes time. And we have already been surprised many times that some countries create long-range missiles much faster than U.S. intelligence expects it,” said Hadley.
Nevertheless, it is unlikely the U.S. will completely give up the idea of using the Gabalin radar. First, Washington is interested in increasing its military presence near Iran’s border. Second, Azerbaijan’s authorities are strongly interested in that as well. Putin’s initiative caused joyful excitement in Baku on Friday. “Azerbaijan is ready to begin consultations on the joint use of the Gabalin radar in bilateral and three-sided negotiations,” said the country’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov. “On the whole, it might bring stability in the region.” At the same time, he made it clear that Putin’s offer should not be taken as a sensation. He said this issue was thoroughly discussed back in late May, when Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Azerbaijan.
Welcoming Putin’s offer, Baku thinks not so much of counteracting global threats, as of the Russian initiative’s possible advantages. Azerbaijan began to get off the orbit of Russia’s influence after the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, built on U.S. initiative and detouring Russia’s territory, had been launched in 2006. Azerbaijani authorities became more confident in carrying out their own foreign policy, often making decisions without checking with Russia. Thus, for instance, in the midst of the last year’s Russia-Georgia confrontation, Azerbaijan gave material and moral support to Georgia put under the pressure of Russian sanctions. Now Baku has a great chance to dilute Russia’s presence with that of the U.S., and without damage to the relations with Moscow, since the initiative is coming directly from the latter.
Putin’s offer has already produced a great propagandistic effect, not only in Russia, but in the West as well. So, any U.S. response to it will affect the further development of the political situation in Russia. Considering the growth of anti-U.S. sentiments in the Russian society and the Russian authorities’ dislike of the U.S. missile defense plans in Europe, George Bush has just one chance to overcome this negative trend: to accept Putin’s offer. In this case only, he would deprive Russian ‘hawks’ of their arguments and would show that the U.S. is not Russia’s enemy at all. However, Russia’s offer is unacceptable for the U.S. in what concerns the complete giving up of deploying the anti-missile system in Europe. Thus, even a partial Washington’s refusal will help those Russian politicians who constantly speak of U.S. hostility. Any response of Bush, except the one dictated by Putin, will be interpreted as a proof that the U.S. wants a new Cold War.
Mikhail Zygar, Vladimir Solovyev
All the Article in Russian as of June 09, 2007
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