Nazarbaev Finds an Ally
// Turkmenistan enters the orbit of Kazakhstan
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov completed a two-day state visit to Kazakhstan yesterday. In Astana, his visit was taken as an important step toward Kazakh President Noursultan Nazarbaev's long-time dream of union of Central Asian states. But as it develops its plans, Kazakhstan is keeping a constant eye on Russia, assuring it that it intends nothing dangerous for it.
A Warm Reception
Berdymukhammedov's visit to Kazakhstan was probably one of the more fruitful of his foreign visits. After arriving in Astana on Monday, he was practically inseparable from Nazarbaev until his departure. The president's two days together resulted in the signing of a voluminous package of bilateral agreements. The desire arose to cooperate in everything from trade and electricity to breeding saiga antelope.
Berdymukhammedov and Nazarbaev tried hard to show that the cool relations between Astana and Ashgabat under late Turkmen president Saparmurat Niyazov are a thing of the past. Agreements on economic, scientific and cultural cooperation lasting to 2020 were meant to convince the doubters.
The two presidents agreed to reconstruct the Turkmenbashi-Aktau-Atyrau-Astrakahan road along the shore of the Caspian Sea and to open a bus line between Aktau and Turkmenbashi. They also ordered their governments to determine the best route for a rail line between the two countries.
The visit went beyond mere protocol. Nazarbaev surrounded his guest with concern. He showed Berdymukhammedov around Astana personally, taking him to the museum to himself, to the oceanarium and to the Palace of Peace and Agreement. Nor did the president tire of saying warm words to each other. “There was never any disagreement between our two countries,” Berdymukhammedov said. “We have many points in common in the activation of bilateral relations.”
Nazarbaev responded in kind. “This visit will serve for broader cooperation in all areas of economics and politics. We bring everything good with us from the past, but we are looking to the future,” he said. “It is pragmatism that leads us to gas lines and transportation routes and pragmatism that pushes us to expand cultural ties. In the final analysis, all of this is being done for the sake of people, their happiness and prosperity.”
The Cold Calculation
The warm welcome shown Berdymukhammedov in Astana is in line with the current foreign policy of Kazakhstan, which has been openly pretending to the status of Central Asian superpower lately. Kazakh authorities see economic cooperation as an effective path to integration in Central Asia, and that is easiest to establish through coordinating tariff policy on hydrocarbons in the region's largest countries – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The idea of forming an economic union of Central Asian countries is not new. It first came into Nazarbaev's head 12 years ago, but it was not supported by the neighboring countries at the time. Now several of them have changed their views. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev was one of the first to come around. A month ago, during a visit by Nazarbaev to Bishkek, they agreed to set up an interstate council to coordinate large-scale cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. “I, as the president of Kyrgyzstan, support that initiative,” Bakiev stated. “If Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are practically ready for such a union, we should formalize it. It seems to me that we need to wait until all four states [of Central Asia] mature.” Nazarbaev thanked his colleague with a promise to invest in the construction in two Kambaratinsky hydroelectric plants, the launch of which, in his words, may turn Kyrgyzstan into a major exporter of electricity in the region.
The current visit of the new Turkmen leader can be called another triumph of Kazakh foreign policy. The results of negotiations between Astana and Ashgabat show that Berdymukhammedov is not against joining the new alliance being founded by Nazarbaev. In exchange, Kazakhstan will use its influence in the West to express desire to help Turkmenistan emerge from its international isolation dating from Niyazov. Moreover, Tashkent is battling for regional leadership. After the events in Andijan in May 2005, Uzbekistan is practically a pariah country and was forced into Russia's fold. But, after Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan make friends around it, it is possible that it too will want to follow their example in the foundation of a united Central Asia.
“The idea of founding a Central Asian union is blowing in the wind,” Birzhan Murataliev, deputy director of the Atameken union of entrepreneurs and employers of Kazakhstan told Kommersant. “Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have no common border with Russia, therefore they need to integrate. It follows to restore former economic ties. The European Union was also originally a union of coal and steel, and now they have a common constitution in hand.”
The Diplomatic Front
In Astana, Nazarbaev seems to understand that Moscow might not like its new geopolitical project. Just a month ago, the presidents of Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan agreed to lay the Prikaspiisky gas pipeline together. Therefore, now the Kazakh leader has to make a considerable diplomatic effort to make sure the Kremlin does not suspect him of double dealing. He had just seen Berdymukhammedov off when Nazarbaev received chief of the Russian presidential executive staff Sergey Sobyanin.
During those negotiations, Nazarbaev tried to convince him that Russia is still among Kazakhstan's priority partners. “In the course of the latest visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Astana, a cooperation program was signed. The partnership of our countries in the areas of business and investment will be expanded under it. Kazakhstan and Russia now have the best of relations,” the Kazakh president told his Russian visitor.
To dispel any final doubts of his loyalty to Putin, Nazarbaev will send Kazakh Prime Minister Karinm Masimov on a visit to Russia on May 31.
Vladimir Solovyev; Alexander Sidorov, Astana
All the Article in Russian as of May 30, 2007
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