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Peace Dividends
// The price of the question
You count your chickens in autumn. That old saying applies literally to the latest turn of events in Ukraine, where the Central Elections Commission will be counting votes after the September 30 early elections. The standoff between the two political camps equal in power, with financial and industrial group comparable in power standing behind them, was settled after it became clear that there would be no forceful arbitration in the disagreement. The split that ran through the country divided the enforcement agencies as well.
Thus the political crisis in Ukraine was settled by an unknown traffic cop somewhere in Kolebyaki by Poltava, who held up his stick in front of the Interior Ministry forces heading to Kiev to settle the argument in favor of the president. His stick was a magic wand that stopped the troops obediently in their tracks. But it was not magic there in Gogol's homeland. Simply people in the capital understood that one turn would lead to another, one special force to another and if, God forbid, it led to bloodshed, the blood would be on the hands of both opposing politicians. And then who would vote for their parties and what would their image be abroad?
Simple arithmetic will show who won finally from the holding of the elections in autumn. The question of the date of the elections was a technical issue, not a political one. For the Orange – Our Ukraine and the Yulia Timoshenko Bloc – it was of principle importance that the elections occur as soon as possible. Having succeeded in dissolving the parliament they considered illegitimate, they took on the role of fighters for justice and the people's interests and reached a peak in popularity. To preserve that popularity as votes, they had to seize the moment, and hold elections as soon as possible. So they insisted on holding the elections no later than July 8. Viktor Yanukovich's Party of the Regions and its partners in the ruling coalition were in an uncomfortable spot. There was little moral victory in the elections for them. Thus the Regionals decided not to agree to elections any earlier than October. By that time, the Orange popularity would have waned and Yanukovich would have time to take action to raise the popularity of his party.
Yanukovich got what he wanted. September 30 is essentially the same date as they had mentioned before. Yanukovich also achieved a victory for his image. During the current crisis, he called for peace, agreement and unity the whole time, out of character for the wrecker Yulia Timoshenko portrayed him as. Now she has to find new arguments against him, and fast.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of May 28, 2007
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Photo: Dmitry Azarov
