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Missile Defense Spreading East
// Japan and the United States form a missile defense system on Russia's border
The Japanese Defense Ministry announced yesterday that it is considering holding a trilateral consultation with the United States and Australia on the formation of a missile defense system in the Pacific Ocean basin. That means that on the eastern border of Russia, in addition to Poland and the Czech Republic, there will eventually be a massive structure potentially able to neutralize Russian nuclear missiles. Experts say it is a long ways away, however. ITAR-TASS Tokyo correspondent Vasily Golovin has exclusive coverage for Kommersant.
By Island and by Sea
In spite of the profession habit of secrecy, one official of the Japanese Defense Ministry was quite willing to tell me by telephone yesterday that a trilateral consultation is being considered. “By the way, no decision has been made yet,” he added soothingly. “Various options are being considered in our departments.”
The Tokyo press claims, however, that the U.S., Japan and Australia intend to begin work this year at the level of defense ministry officials on forming a unified system of ballistic missile interception. A principle agreement on it was reached in Tokyo in April at a high-level meeting of the three countries' military.
Australia has yet to come to a decision on the locating components of the antiballistic system there. But it has expressed its willingness to share information received through its powerful Pine Gap satellite tracking station and to place its satellite relay center at the disposal of the needs of the antiballistic system.
At the same time, Tokyo and Washington have already practically established a unified antiballistic system around Japan. It is fairly modest so far. The U.S. has launched a few ships in the region equipped with the Aegis system, which is capable of tracking over than ten flying targets. It has also set up new PAC-3 Patriot ballistic missiles at the Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, the largest American facility outside the U.S.
Nodong and Musudan
Japan is acting similarly. It plans to equip its cruiser Kongo with American SM-3 ballistic missiles, which already has the Aegis system on it. The national antiballistic system will include a total of four such vessels. Then their number will be expanded to six. After receiving a tip-off from an American or Japanese spy satellite, the antiballistic craft is supposed to track the enemy missile and shoot it down with an SM-3 as it enters the atmosphere.
If a missile makes it through that first line of defense, it will be shot down from land by a Patriot. The Japanese military has already begun placing them in a base to the north of Tokyo and intends to provide cover to all its major cities with them.
It has been officially announced that preparation are being made to neutralize the threat posed by North Korea. Pyongyang, according to American information, has at least 200 Nodon mobile ballistic missiles, modeled after a Soviet model of the 1950s. They could potentially hit the main territory of Japan, although experts say that they are unreliable and inexact.
A new North Korean missile, called the Musudan after the main missile base in northeastern North Korea, looks more serious. It was first noted by intelligence from space at a military parade in Pyongyang on April 25. Experts suggest that the Musudan was modeled on the outdated Soviet R-27 submarine missile with a maximum range of 2500-3000 km. and better performance potential than the Nodong. Experts say that the Musudan has a range of 5000 km and is able hit targets not only all over the Far East, but on Guam as well, where a U.S. submarine and aviation base is located. The real capabilities of the Musudan are unknown. No tests of the missile have been recorded.
How to Intercept a Missile from Kamchatka
So far, Tokyo is most afraid of North Korean missiles, since densely populated Japan could suffer great harm even from a few primitive Nodong missiles. The Americans seem more interested in other parts of the region, China in particular.
“According to current plan, ships with the Aegis system and SM-3 ballistic missiles are being spread out in a line parallel to the shore of Eastern Asia,” well-known Japanese military expert Tetsuo Maeda explained to me. “It is clearly a display intended for China, which, unlike North Korea, already has missiles capable of hitting the U.S.”
Experts acknowledge that the SM-3-equipped ships could potentially be used against Russia. One of Russia's main submarine bases lies on the Kamchatka Peninsula. They cruised the Sea of Okhotsk, from which a preventative strike could be launched against the U.S. during the Cold War.
“The ships with the Aegis system and SM-3 could theoretically advance to the Sea of Okhotsk or be stationed in the Sea of Japan with Russian targets,” said former chief of the Ground Self-Defense Force staff of Japan Hikaru Tomizawa. “However, those antiballistic forces are extremely ineffective for battles with modern missiles launched from a submarine. Also, the ships themselves become targets for a Russian strike.”
“So far, we can only hope that we can destroy missiles heading straight for Japan,” said former professor at the Japanese National Defense Academy Hachiroe Tokuda. “To intercept a powerful missile starting from a different trajectory, to America across the Arctic Ocean, for example, would be extremely complicated.” Experts mention that the SM-3 missile has questionable effectiveness. They are undergoing trials and many of them are unsuccessful.
Tokyo Is Waiting for Anatoly Serdyukov
The pessimistic outlook on the U.S.-Japanese antiballistic system can be extended to the improvement planned for it. Tokyo and Washington are conducting research for the establishment of new, more effective and longer-range, ballistic missiles. This summer, a new informational defense system will come into use at the base at Misawa, on the extremely northeast of Japan's main island of Honshu. It will process information on missile launches in Eastern Asia. It will receive initial information from early-warning satellites and process it computers and immediately forward the information to the military command of the two countries. To the west of Misawa, a new American radar has been in operation since last September. It can find and track missiles at great distances and distinguish real warheads from false one. The development of the system was announced in the U.S. just in April of last year.
Tokyo does not want to complicate relations with Russia because of the antiballistic system and is ready to explain itself. Informed sources say that Russia's neighbor would like to explain it to Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in person and have invited him to visit before the end of the year.
Vasily Golovin
All the Article in Russian as of May 24, 2007
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