Vyacheslav Kravchenko, head of the Ministry of Industry and Energy department of structural and tariff policy for natural monopolies
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin
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Gazprom Plans to Double Exports
Gazprom plans to at least double its exports in the next quarter century. The Ministry of Industry and Energy is demanding that it estimate the growth of domestic consumption of natural gas first and only then make export prognoses. For that purpose, Gazprom intends to reach agreements with all the large Russian gas consumers in the second half of the year.
Gazprom plans to increase its exports to Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and the United States from 155 billion to 310 billion cu. m. by 2030, given “moderate” development of the GDP of the Russian Federation (that is, low energy efficiency in the country's industry). In the event of “intensive” development, the natural gas monopoly plans for up to 375 billion cu. m. export. Those quantities will include 25 billion cu. m. or 50 billion cu. m. to northeastern China and Korea, and 27 billion cu. m. of liquefied natural gas in either case. Other regions of China will receive 30 billion cu. m. through the Altai Pipeline. Eight billion cu. m. will go to Turkey, Israel and Southern and Central Europe through the Blue Stream 2 Pipeline. The Gazprom prognosis foresees domestic consumption of 411-436 billion cu. m. by 2030.
Vyacheslav Kravchenko, head of the Ministry of Industry and Energy department of structural and tariff policy for natural monopolies, told Kommersant that “Gazprom should predict domestic consumption more exactly, since its calculations are not pegged to life, and I have seen a normal prognosis yet.” Deputy head of the Gazprom informational policy department Sergey Kipriyanov responded that the company agrees with the ministry and will have a better idea of domestic demand in the second half of the year.
Industry analysts say that there is little chance of forming an exact estimate of the market through 2030, since there are no laws making prognoses binding. Experts also have doubts about the chance of doubling gas exports. Troika Dialog's Valery Nesterov notes that Iran and Qatar may enter the gas market in the next ten years. Those countries have reserves comparable to Russia's. Furthermore, China steadfastly refuses to pay more than $100 per 1000 cu. m. of gas.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of May 17, 2007
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