Guarantor of Change in Constitution
// President Nazarbaev is reinforcing his power
Kazakhstan’s parliament passed in the first reading on Wednesday the amendments to the country’s Constitution. Formally, they expand the parliament’s rights and add importance to political parties, transforming Kazakhstan from a presidential republic into a presidential-parliamentary one. However, the amendments’ true purpose is to reinforce the president’s power so as to prepare for handing it over to Nursultan Nazarbaev’s successor.
The Time Has Come
Kazakh deputies of both parliamentary chambers have not seen the text of the amendments until Wednesday’s morning. Even the members of ruling Nur Otan party have not seen it, although President Nazarbaev summoned them to his residence to discuss the amendments in “his circle”. However, the president did not go into details, discussing the amendments just in outline. Thus, the text became quite a surprise for most deputies, when it was read out by Nazarbaev on Wednesday.
The necessity to carry out a political reform in Kazakhstan has been discussed since long ago. The demand to carry out the reform became one of the chief slogans of the Kazakhstan’s Democratic Choice opposition movement created in autumn 2001. However, the authorities did not agree back then to meet the demand. Moreover, they persecuted the leaders of the newly-created opposition movement. Some leaders lost their positions, others lost a considerable part of business, and some were even put in jail.
The tough response of Kazakh authorities was quite explicable back then. Agreeing to carry out the political reform would actually mean voluntarily handing the initiative over to the opposition, and Nazarbaev could not do it. The president himself announced in 2003 that the political reform is necessary. So, he can now say that passing the current amendments means implementing his own initiative.
Four years have passed since the reform was suggested. Nazarbaev did not hurry. First, he was re-elected in late 2005 for a third 7-year-long presidential term. In 2006, the president’s entourage successfully carried out parliamentary elections, securing the majority in parliament to the pro-president parties. Then those parties merged together into one, -- Nur Otan. It began dominating the country’s political scene, almost without rivals. Opposition parties, busy with internal competition, either fitted into the system, or marginalized.
It was then when President Nazarbaev decided to initiate the constitutional reform. A specially-created working group developed the draft. The president submitted on Wednesday the reform’s basic points for the parliament’s approval.
The reform contains several radical changes of Kazakhstan’s political system. First of all, Nazarbaev suggested expanding the number of deputies of the parliament’s lower chamber by 30 people (up to 107), and adding 8 senators to the upper chamber (there will now be 47 senators). “It is a normal proportion for our 15-million Kazakhstan,” the president assured. Moreover, the lower chamber will now be elected by party lists (until now, only 10 lower chamber deputies out of 77 were elected like that).
Besides, Nazarbaev suggested introducing an amendment according to which the country’s prime minister is appointed by the president after consultations with political parties, and with the agreement of the lower chamber’s majority. “Prime minister will represent the party of parliamentary majority,” the president said. He underlined that this point of the reform caused “strongest discussions, and eventually the opposition’s suggestion was chosen as basis”.
At last, Nazarbaev suggested reducing the presidential term from the current seven years to five years. However, it will not affect Nazarbaev himself. “The reform will be implemented since 2012,” he said. It is the year when his presidential term expires.
Deputies strongly supported the amendments suggested by the president. “Changes are significant. It is very revolutionary – switching to a new principle of parliament formation,” said Serik Abdrahmanov, head of the lower chamber’s International Affairs and Security Committee. Constitution Council’s chairman Igor Rogov added: “The amendments will allow to make our country even more democratic, to secure stronger protection for human and civil rights.” The majority of deputies of both houses voted for the amendments.
Reforms for Export
However, Kazakhstan’s political system will hardly be democratized significantly. Anyway, the country’s opposition thinks so. Opposition members say the transition to forming the parliament’s lower chamber by party lists only will make it easier for the authorities to control the election process, and will block the entry to parliament for independent deputies. Besides, canceling the rule of the so-called imperative mandate will strengthen the control of parties over their deputies, for it will force them to vote the way their party decides.
The parliament’s upper chamber will be more controllable as well. Before, only 7 out of 39 senators were appointed by the president, while the rest were elected by regional legislatures. Now the president’s quota rises to 15 out of 47 senators. So, almost one third of the upper house will now be appointed by the president personally. By the way, the position of the Senate’s speaker is second in importance in Kazakhstan.
It will now be easier for the president to dissolve the parliament. The current Constitution prescribes a full procedure for this case. The amendments will allow the president just to consult the prime minister and the speakers of both houses, for the parliament to end its existence.
“The constitutional amendments without real reforms, the imitation of reforms will satisfy neither the opposition inside the country, nor the international community that criticizes Kazakhstan for its authoritarian regime,” said Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, leader of the General-Republican Social-Democratic party. He said that Nazarbaev initiated the amendments to the Constitution because of the “upcoming voting on Kazakhstan’s chairing the OSCE in 2009. By that time, the country has to present implemented political reforms; it has to show to the West that the president is ready for limiting his own powers. Thus, the amendments read out on Wednesday are, rather, reforms for export.”
Yet, the purpose of the constitutional amendments initiated by President Nazarbaev is not only to improve Kazakhstan’s image in the West. Apparently, the president intends to strengthen his own power.
Kazakh authorities really hurry to implement the reform. The second (final) voting on the draft amendments is scheduled for Friday. The president is ready to sign the new law early next week. The law will come into force right after that. “The urgency to ratify the amendments must be due to the president’s decision to dissolve the current parliament and to appoint new elections,” said Zharmakhan Tuyakbai. Although the authorities disproved it on Wednesday thru Igor Rogov, they might be really interested in early parliamentary elections.
The current parliament is to be re-elected in 2009. By that time, the opposition might become much more united and stronger than now. Besides, it will be somewhat inconvenient for the OSCE chairing state to use its administrative resource. Meanwhile, if the parliament is elected this autumn, and according to the new pattern favorable for the authorities, it will work till 2012. That is, Nazarbaev will have a stable parliamentary majority and an obedient parliament till the end of his presidential term.
This period of time will be quite enough for calmly and safely choosing the successor. “The reasons for forming a new configuration of political space are obvious: none of Nazarbaev’s potential successors is able to take over the huge complex of powers which the first president has. Now, speakers of upper and lower chambers are becoming the key figures in politics beside the president. It is an evident sign of preparation for handing over the power,” said Alexei Vlasov, deputy director of the Moscow State University’s Information and Analytical Center for the Post-Soviet-Space Studies.
Which means, Kazakhstan faces a new stage of intra-elite struggle for the right to become Nursultan Nazarbaev’s successor.
Alexander Konstantinov, Astana; Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of May 17, 2007
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