Minister of Industry and Energy of Russia Viktor Khristenko (right) was barely able to restrain his president from taking on the role of president of Kazakhstan.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Ring around the Caspian
// The president of Russia explained, and the president of Turkmenistan seems to have understood
A milestone document on construction and modernization of pipelines between Turkmenistan and Russia was signed in the city of Turkmenbashi on Saturday. Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov thought the event spoil just a little for the Turkmen president by the indelicate mention of the possibility of building the Transcaspian pipeline as well, which would bypass Russia.
The president of Russia and Kazakhstan were received in Turkmenbashi like members of the family. Like different relatives, but one family.
“I am glad Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov said at the signing of the documents on the modernization of one pipeline and constriction of another, “that there are representatives of great Russia and brotherly Kazakhstan here in this auditorium. We guarantee the delivery of Turkmen gas. Turkmenistan invites companies from your countries to collaborate on the Turkmen part of the [Caspian Sea] shelf. We think investments here will pay off quickly.”
Berdymukhammedov also proposed building a railroad parallel to the Prikaspiisky Pipeline and a Turkmenbashi-Aktau-Astana ferry route. He had not warned the other leaders that he would suggest those ideas. Now they couldn't refuse.
“Tourism will develop here,” Berdymukhammedov continued at a leisurely pace. “We are proposing to invest about $1 billion in the matter ourselves.”
The hotel where these events were taking lace was part of that development. It was a five-star hotel on the bare steppe, with a bar where five-star cognac, tea or Coca Cola cost $1.00, and no other currency was accepted.
It took about an hour to get here from the airport. In that time, we passed only a military settlement that looked like it had been the site of a humanitarian catastrophe for several years now and several apartment blocks that were so rundown that I would have thought that explosions had taken place in them. But no. It was explained to me that that was just the normal aging process and it was possible to live in them for a long time to come, and live happily, if you have confidence in the future. The residents of Turkmenistan should not lose their confidence. They have a progressive leader who has just replaced another progressive leader, the father of their nation. Some say the new leader is the old one's son.
While the Turkmen president was speaking, Russian President Vladimir Putin was in a tense whispered conversation with Russian Minister of Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko and Gazprom head Alexey Miller.
Berdymukhammedov then introduced the president of Kazakhstan. When he heard that someone else was to take the stage, Putin jumped up and managed to thank “the president of Turkmenistan for the chance to meet here in this place,” before he realized that the other president had been introduced. The presidents of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan both encouraged him to continue, but he declined.
“Here in the city of Turkmenbashi, we are signing a document on the establishment of the Transcaspian Pipeline,” Kazakh President Noursultan Nazarbaev began, not catching himself in time.
It seems that the Kazakh president had been thinking about the Transcaspian Pipeline, which would cross the Caspian Sea and bypass Russia, even as he was talking about the Priskaspiisky. And everyone else was saying one thing and thinking another too.
“We take Turkmenistan's proposal of work for our companies on the shelf very seriously,” Nazarbaev continued. “We are prepared to begin that work with Russian companies or separately from them.”
That was uncalled for as well. Russian negotiators say the question as Russian companies being able to bring in Kazakh companies – or not, as they wished. Nazarbaev apparently thought differently.
When the president of Russia finally thanked the president of Turkmenistan for the chance to meet here in this place, he unexpected continued by talking about Russia's place in the world energy system and last year's G8 summit, where energy security was a key topic. It seemed that he just couldn't deny himself the pleasure. Europe wanted a diversification of suppliers of Turkmen gas, and it got it. There was the modernized Central Asia-Center 3 pipeline that crossed Uzbekistan and there would be Central Asia-Center 4 pipeline, that is, the Prikaspiisky. And Europe would get its gas if Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin said so.
Prikaspiisky Pipeline spells the end for the Transcaspian, since even, if the participants manage to agree on how to divide up the Caspian shelf and ignore the technical risks involved in the construction, there won't be any gas left from Turkmenistan after the changes included in the document take place. The technical assessment of the project was originally to be ready by September 1, but then Putin announced that it would be out July 1. He was clearly forcing the project through.
The presidents signed the document, which Uzbek President Islam Karimov had signed in advance. He was unable to attend the ceremony in Turkmenbashi, in spite of Putin's invitation. Karimov risked ending up in an inconvenient situation, if the signing by the other presidents didn't go through, but he understood that the pipeline would soon be worthless without modernization. But they couldn't get him to sign an agreement giving Gazprom dispatcher's control over the modernization process on Uzbek territory.
After all of that, there will be hellish work of preparing several interstate agreements on the construction of the Prikaspiisky Pipeline. Turkmenistan's demands are still unknown, but it is clear that the negotiating process will not be easy for Russia.
Finally, Putin wanted to have a word with the press. And the other presidents wanted to join him.
A Russian journalist asked Berdymukhammedov if the Transcaspian Pipeline could be finally written off. He said no. This sent a shiver through the Russian delegation, which spent much time afterwards talking about how Berdymukhammedov could not reject in words the pipeline his predecessor spent ten years promising to build.
When asked if the Prikaspiisky project would be carried out individually by the countries involved on their own territory or by a consortium, Nazarbaev said individually. Putin said only that “We began negotiations on the new route at the request of the Turkmen side.”
Andrey Kolesnikov
All the Article in Russian as of May 14, 2007
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