Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) meets with his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov (L) in the Novo-Ogarevo presidential residence near Moscow.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Straight Pipeline Talk
// Russia persuades Turkmenistan to give up the turning movement
Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov arrived to Moscow on Monday. It is his first visit to Russia. After Saparmurat Niyazov’s death and the change of political power in Ashkhabad, the struggle for influencing Turkmenistan and its energy resources has intensified. The Kremlin hopes to use to the utmost the current visit of the Turkmen guest to strengthen Russia’s positions in the struggle.
Moscow Remembers Bygones
The agreement on Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov’s visit to Russia was reached during the visit of Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Ashkhabad in early April. Lavrov then brought Vladimir Putin’s invitation to the new Turkmen leader to come to Russia “in the nearest time”. The invitation was accepted. However, Berdymukhammedov’s first foreign visit was to Saudi Arabia [please see Kommersant as of April 14], where he held talks with King Abdullah and made hajj.
Moreover, not only the order of visits was changed. After Turkmen president’s hajj, Ashkhabad began insisting that he should from now on be called by his name changed according to Islamic canons, -- Gurbanguly Berdymukhammed. However, Putin will probably address his Turkmen counterpart the old way, by name and patronymic: Gurbanguly Myalikkulievich.
The Kremlin attaches much importance to the upcoming negotiations. An anonymous source in the Kremlin said Monday that Moscow intends to “secure building-up and strengthening of the confidential political dialogue with Turkmenistan at the top level”. It means that Putin hopes to establish confidential relations with the new Turkmen leader, and then, using that basis, agree on a number of key issues, from Moscow’s point of view.
Sources close to the preparation for the upcoming visit said the main subject of today’s talks in the Kremlin will be the cooperation in natural gas extraction and transporting. “Fuel and energy sector is the backbone of Russia-Turkmenistan economic cooperation,” the anonymous source in the Kremlin confirmed Monday.
Moscow intends to obtain firm guarantees from the new Turkmen leader that Ashkhabad will adhere to all the previously undertaken obligations to Russia in the sphere of natural gas. Moscow and Ashkhabad are bound by the gas cooperation agreement until 2028. It was signed by late Turkmenbashi and by Putin in April 2003. Shortly before his death, Saparmurat Niyazov signed an agreement that Gazprom will buy 162 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas in 2007-2009 at $100 per cubic meter.
Key agreements that gas supplies to Russia will remain Ashkhabad’s priority were reached during Mikhail Fradkov’s visit to Ashkhabad in February, when he stayed one day longer after the new president’s inauguration. Later, they were confirmed during Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit. However, the Kremlin is apparently afraid anyway. So, today’s talks are to allay that anxiety.
Ashkhabad’s Main Secret
The Kremlin’s anxiety is first of all caused by the U.S. & allies’ advances to the new Turkmen leader, which suddenly became more active recently. In early March, U.S. Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Steven R. Mann visited Ashkhabad with an “overture mission”. By the way, Mann was the U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan in 1998-2001. Sources said, Mann was actively persuading Berdymukhammedov of the necessity to revive the project of trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The next to praise the project as promising was Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli. The E.U. offered ˆ1.7 million to Ashkhabad for developing the technical-economic justification for the trans-Caspian pipeline.
Reviving the project is a big headache for Moscow. The project implies transporting Turkmen gas to Europe along the Caspian Sea’s bottom, detouring Russia, by route Turkmenistan-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey. So far, the new Turkmen leader has been making reassuring signs both to Russia, and to the West. To Moscow, he promises to follow the policy of his predecessor, that is to actually give up the project. To U.S. envoys, he promises to cooperate with the U.S. in the fuel and energy sphere so as to diversify the routes for supplying gas.
Today Berdymukhammedov is to make up his mind. To help him make the right choice (according to the Kremlin’s point of view), Putin suggested an alternative during their short visit in Novo-Ogarevo on Monday. The alternative is to modernize the working branch of the Central Asia—Center pipeline, and to build a branch through Kazakhstan towards Russia along the Caspian Sea’s eastern coast. Although the ideas are not new, they should be close to the Turkmen leader’s heart, for their author is allegedly his late predecessor.
Whether the new Turkmen president really wants to sincerely cooperate with Russia, can be determined by how ready he is to partially reveal the main Turkmen secret: how much gas there actually is in the country. Many experts have been warning since long ago that the statements about Turkmenistan’s rich gas resources might prove to be strongly exaggerated, while the generous promises of Turkmen authorities (former and current), attracting foreign buyers and investors, nothing more than a part of Ashkhabad’s big game.
In 2004, two companies, U.S. and British, carried out independent audit of Turkmen gas deposits, but Ashkhabad is keeping its results in strict secrecy. Moscow needs that data not just out of curiosity. If the audit’s results are really promising, Russia (represented by Gazprom, for instance) will definitely invest generously into Turkmenistan.
The agenda of today’s negotiations, said the same anonymous source in the Kremlin, has “the perspective projects of Russian companies in Turkmenistan”. The source said the companies that have “serious projects and plans” are LUKOIL, Zarubezhneft, Itera, Stroitransgaz, Soyuzneftegaz, Rusal. According to Kommersant’s information, LUKOIL wants to largely invest into Turkmen oil-and-gas sector (of the inland part, this time), and Rusal would like to build aluminum sector and a large gas electric power plant there.
Certainly, the presidents’ negotiations will contain not only economic subjects (even if with political implication). Moscow is extremely interested in making Ashkhabad reconsider Turkmenbashi’s stand on the CIS membership. Now it is associated, which actually means Turkmenistan’s self-removal from CIS activities. The Kremlin hopes the situation will change now with the new leader.
It will soon become clear to what extent these expectations are met. In early June, an informal CIS summit will be held within the XI Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. In late June, the CIS presidents will meet informally once again, -- in Rostov-on-Don at the horse-race for the Russian president’s prize. Berdymukhammedov has invitations for both events. His presence (or absence) will show whether Putin managed to establish confidential relations right at the first meeting with his Turkmen counterpart.
Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 24, 2007
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