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An Enriching Environment
// IAEA Dirt on Iran Goes Public
An internal document leaked to the international media yesterday from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) banishes any remaining doubts about Iran's claim to have begun industrial-scale uranium enrichment at its facility in Natanz. The IAEA's confirmation of Iran's activities significantly turns up the tension in the Iranian crisis. It also puts Russia in an uncomfortable position by proving that Iran's statements about joining the nuclear club were not a bluff.
Selected Correspondence with Iran
Confirmation of Iran's recent technical breakthrough in the development of its nuclear program, in violation of UN Security Council resolution #1747 from March 24 of this year that demanded suspension of enrichment, was provided yesterday by a confidential letter to Iranian officials signed by IAEA deputy director general Olli Heinonen and dated April 18. The one-page letter, which found its way into the hands of the media thanks to a leak at the agency's headquarters, notes that Iran "has put into operation 1,312 centrifuges" that are operating in eight cascades of 164 centrifuges each to produce enriched uranium from UF6 (uranium hexafluoride gas, one of the basic ingredients in fuel for nuclear reactors and nuclear weapons). The level of operations mentioned in the letter is significantly higher than earlier estimates of Iran's activities, which just two weeks ago were believed to involve only 600 operational centrifuges and no use of UF6.
According to the document, the IAEA is seriously concerned not only about the centrifuges in the nuclear center in Natanz but also about the facility being built in Arak for the production of plutonium. One of the Security Council's demands on Iran was suspension of the construction of the facility in Arak, which could eventually provide the country with weapons-grade plutonium (experts calculate that the output of the Arak facility would be enough plutonium to make two atomic bombs per year). The Iranians, however, insist that the Arak facility is necessary for medical research and are refusing to stop work on construction.
The letter signed by Mr. Heinonen protests Tehran's refusal to allow IAEA inspectors access to the facility in Arak, in direct violation of its Safeguards Agreement. According to the agreement between Tehran and the international nuclear watchdog, the Iranian side is supposed to notify the IAEA six months in advance of its plans for new developments in its nuclear program. Last month, riding wave of escalation of the crisis surrounding its program, Tehran summarily informed the IAEA that it was reneging on the agreement to allow the agency's inspectors onto its territory. The letter from the IAEA calls Iran's actions illegal, pointing out that Safeguards Agreements cannot be unilaterally reconsidered by one side or the other.
The public appearance of the contents of the confidential document caught IAEA director general Mohammed ElBaradei and his agency by surprise. Yesterday the IAEA's press service declined to comment on the leak: "I cannot say anything about that matter," said IAEA press officer Ayhan Evrensel. However, diplomatic sources close to the IAEA confirmed the existence of the letter, which is posted on the closed site maintained by the agency to provide information for representatives of IAEA member countries. The leak thus had to come from someone in the relatively small circle of officials who have access to the site, and it was undoubtedly intended to prove the reality of the Iranian nuclear program to those who still doubt the seriousness of the situation.
Pentagon Head Flies to Israel
Not unexpectedly, the first and harshest responses to the IAEA's letter came from the hardliners on the Iran question, the United States and Israel. US National Security Council secretary Gordon Johnroe noted that the letter confirms that the Iranian government is continuing to fly in the face of the international community and to take an obstructionist position in regard to IAEA inspections. "While Iran believes this to be a breakthrough, this is a step backwards for the Iranian people," said Mr. Johnroe, adding, that Iran's behavior "could lead to a new UN Security Council resolution."
The Iranian nuclear crisis was a key item on the agenda during yesterday's one-day visit by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to Israel and his talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. During a joint press conference in Jerusalem, Mr. Gates, who is the first Pentagon chief to visit Israel in eight years, and his Israeli counterpart Amir Peretz emphasized the necessity of increasing international pressure on Iran. According to Mr. Gates, the international community "should show unity in saying to Iran what it should be doing with its nuclear program." During his visit, the defense secretary was keen to dispel fears that the US is on the brink of taking military action against Iran in retaliation for its nuclear noncompliance, and he reiterated that diplomacy is America's preferred resolution to the crisis. "It is impossible to change everything in a day, but it seem obvious to me that we should primarily focus our efforts on diplomatic initiatives, especially because the international community is currently presenting a unified front," said Mr. Gates.
However, observers remarked that neither US President George Bush nor Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have ruled out the possibility of using force. It is possible that the main point of the statements about presenting a unified front against the Iranian threat was chiefly to prepare the psychological grounds for any upcoming action against Iran, so that when the time comes the international community will not appear as divided on the Iranian issue as it was before the war in Iraq.
How Far Can Unity Stretch
Moscow is also talking about a unified position among the world's superpowers on the Iranian question. In an interview earlier this month with the Financial Times, Russian first deputy prime minister Sergei Ivanov said, "The last two resolutions were passed by the Security Council unanimously. And the main thing is to preserve the unity of the Security Council. Because if there is no unity the same thing will happen as we see in Iraq."
The leak of the letter from the IAEA, however, threatens to jeopardize that unity. Russia was particularly loathe to believe that the Iranians were not bluffing about the centrifuges at Natanz. When on April 9 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad celebrated the country's newly-established Day of Nuclear Technology by announcing the beginning of industrial-scale enrichment of uranium and Iran's entry into the nuclear club, Moscow was the only major world power to wonder whether the Iranian leader's words were not just bravado with no basis in fact. "Of course we heard the statements from the president of Iran, and we take everything that is happening with the Iranian nuclear program seriously. But we want to ground ourselves on facts, not on emotional political gestures. So far we have no proof that practical enrichment in new cascades has begun," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last week.
In a surprising statement that seemed to excuse Tehran's actions and that is presumably close to the official Russian position, Evgeny Primakov, the president of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said at the opening of the VI Media Forum in Almaty yesterday that Iran does not intend to create nuclear weapons in the near future. With regard to the enrichment of uranium, according to Mr. Primakov, "that is being done by dozens of countries, and under these circumstances it would be wrong to believe that Iran cannot do the same." Such statements, of course, are clearly at odds with those issuing from the "bad cops" – the US and Israel – in the pursuit of a solution to the Iranian problem.
The internal IAEA letter, however, contains all the proof that Russia needs. And now Moscow is facing the difficult task of adapting its position to unpleasant new realities. There is so far no word on the decisions being made at the top levels of the Russian government, and a spokesperson in the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department of Press and Information said yesterday that the Ministry sees no reason to echo commentary by Western agencies on the matter. As of yesterday, the Russian Foreign Ministry had not even read the letter that is being so thoroughly commented upon in the West.
Sergei Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 20, 2007
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