Once Burned, Twice Shy
// The Difference between Moscow, Kiev, and Bishkek
When comparing the recent street protests in Moscow, Kiev, and Bishkek and the authorities' reactions to them, it is necessary to remember the principle difference between Russia, on the one hand, and Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, on the other. Much is explained by the deadly events of 1993 in Moscow. Having been burned once, the Moscow city authorities are twice shy: they expect inappropriate actions from crowds in the streets and so are cracking down hard. Nevertheless, it is obvious that it would have just been easier to allow the protest, since banning it only helped the protestors attract attention.
That said, if you look at the situation in Moscow beginning in 1989, it is clear that street demonstrations and the reactions to them have evolved significantly and that they are always defined by the period in which they take place. When the Communists were in power, of course, they forbid street protests. In 1990, however, when a broad sociopolitical movement that was impossible to ban started to gather steam, and when Democrats took over the reins of power in Moscow, the authorities' attitudes towards demonstrations changed sharply: representatives of the government lead the protestors in the streets. But then in 1996, during Boris Yeltsin's election campaign, all agitating in the streets was forbidden.
Moreover, while 15 years ago Moscow's street demonstrations raised funds to finance democratic movements, today the protests in Moscow and Kiev need to pay their attendees, not gather money from them. This isn't a bad deal on the side for students. Though, of course, those who form the core of the movement do not attend the protests for money.
The attitude of the authorities towards the street protests in the three capitals is differentiated mainly by the different political and historical moments in which the three countries find themselves. In Kiev and Bishkek, the authorities' tolerant line on street protests is occasioned by the presence of two fairly equally-powerful authorities, which does not exist in Russia. However, those two countries should not flatter themselves: once the situation in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan stabilizes, things will not go well for those who end up in the opposition camp. And that rule will apply no matter who comes to power. If the demonstrators imagine that representatives of the United Civil Front are going to get their hands on power in Russia, they should know that their attitude towards the opposition will be no different.
And finally, with regard to Moscow it must be remembered that the authorities in the capital are in opposition to the federal authorities, and in that sense it is profitable for them to destabilize the situation. What we saw in Moscow was the result of a decision made by Mayor Luzhkov, not a decree from above. Pay attention to one more curious detail: the reaction to the protestors was the same in Nizhny Novgorod, where the mayor's office is occupied by former Moscow deputy mayor Valery Shantsev. I don't think that's an accident.
Arkady Murashev, Moscow GUVD head in 1991-1992
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 16, 2007
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