A rally in front of the Uzbek embassy in Moscow protesting the massacre in Andijan in May 2005. The sign on the left reads, "[Uzbek President] Karimov, remember the fate of [Romanian dictator] Ceausescu!"
Photo: Dmitry Chebotaev
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The Price of Power
// Kurmanbek Bakiev at the Crossroads
Today Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev will have decide the most important question that can be put to the head of a government: what price are you willing to pay for power? The evolution of events in Kyrgyzstan depends on his answer, as does the fate of Mr. Bakiev himself.
The leader of Kyrgyzstan has already demonstrated that he does not quibble about the price when he is sitting in the president's chair. In a sop to the demands of the opposition, Mr. Bakiev first fired the secretary of the Security Council, who had served less than three months in the position. Then he dismissed the prosecutor general, who was one of his closest allies. After that, Mr. Bakiev retracted his veto of a law on public television programming.
The Kyrgyz president even agreed to a coalition government: it was clearly at his behest that now former prime minister Azim Isabekov fired five ministers at the end of March and offered their positions to members of the opposition. When the president's opponents rejected the offer and demanded that he resign, Mr. Bakiev promised to hold a referendum to verify his mandate as the head of the government. Finally, not long ago the president appointed Almazbek Atambaev, one of the leaders of the opposition, as the new prime minister, and yesterday he agreed to a new constitution that will seriously cut back his authority.
However, the opposition appears to consider even that high price insufficient, because on the eve of a new offensive from the opposition, Kurmanbek Bakiev is at the same crossroads once encountered by Eduard Shevarnadze, Leonid Kuchma, Askar Akaev, and Islam Karimov. The first three retreated in the face of the opposition's onslaught, surrendered the president's seat without a fuss, and today are quietly living the lives of political pensioners. The fourth maintained his grip on power with a massive bloodletting and is now reminiscent of a person on whom a sentence has already been passed, but not yet carried out.
In his speech to the nation yesterday, Kurmanbek Bakiev declared that "a well-planned strategy for a government coup" is being put into motion in Kyrgyzstan. Many interpreted these words as readiness on the part of the president to crush the brewing rebellion at any price, including bloodshed.
However, that is not yet the case. Mr. Bakiev still has another ace up his sleeve: the friction between north and south Kyrgyzstan.
The revolution in spring 2005 that ousted Askar Akaev, who hailed from the north, began in the south, and it was on the strength of southerners that the opposition took the White House in Bishkek. During the second Kyrgyz revolution last fall, Kurmanbek Bakiev managed to hang on to power in large part thanks to the fact that he comes from the south and that southerners have not turned their backs on him. During the crisis, a plan was seriously discussed that called for Mr. Bakiev to return to the south and govern the southern regions of Osh, Jalalabad, and Batken if the opposition succeeded in taking Bishkek.
He might still have that possibility. But splitting the country is too high a price to pay to retain power. And the price of bloodshed is even higher.
Gennady Sysoyev
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 11, 2007
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