Supporters of the pro-Yushchenko faction Our Ukraine march in central Kiev on March 21, 2007.
Photo: Vladislav Sodel
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The Moment of Truth
// Why Yushchenko's Political Goose is Cooked
The opinion that a moment of truth is approaching for Ukraine is being voiced increasingly often in Kiev these days. However, the "oranges" and their opponents the "white-and-blues," together with their "red" and "rose" coalition partners, all have different answers as to what that moment of truth will be. For the representatives of the "orange" opposition, the moment of truth should be the dissolution of the Upper Rada by the president. For their opponents, however, the moment of the truth should be the preservation of the parliament's authority, again by the president. One side is threatening a new revolution if their demands are not met, while the other side is cautioning against revolution, although that isn't stopping them from stealing a leaf from their opponents' book and unfurling their flags and setting up their tents in preparation for street protests.
Nevertheless, the moment of truth for Ukraine actually has nothing to do with the question of whether President Yushchenko will dissolve the parliament or not, because regardless of his decision one of the sides will lose, and the loser will clearly refuse to be reconciled to that defeat. And both factions possess sufficient political and financial resources, command thousands-strong armies of supporters, and enjoy the backing of influential groups from abroad. Reasoning thus, to say that Viktor Yushchenko has a choice – call new elections and save the country (Yulia Tymoshenko's logic) or not call new elections and save the country (Viktor Yanukovych's logic) – would be off the mark. The drama of the Ukrainian situation is that the choice is not between a bad choice and a good choice. Whichever decision Viktor Yushchenko makes, whether for or against dissolving the Rada, will only serve to stoke the fires of the confrontation. That's why the Ukrainian president is stalling so much – not only because of his own indecisiveness, but also because of the dead-end nature of the situation that he has found himself in.
In terms of Viktor Yushchenko's political future, this is a no-win situation. If the president does not dissolve the parliament, it will finally be revealed that the emperor has no clothes, and he will henceforth be a general without an army, because the orange revolutionaries will turn away from him for good. After that, it would an easy matter for Viktor Yanukovych to vacuum up the president's former supporters. However, dissolving the parliament also promises nothing but trouble for the president, since he will then lose the last shreds of his independence and will be entirely dependent on the will of Yulia Tymoshenko. The president's seat will be nothing but an invalid's wheelchair, in which he will be able to maneuver only to the extent that the steely matron of the revolution considers necessary.
What conclusions can be drawn from this? Most importantly, what joins the current events in Ukraine with the events of the Orange Revolution is not the presence of tents and people with flags on the streets. The main resemblance is that today, like three and a half years ago during the twilight of Leonid Kuchma's rule, Ukraine is witnessing the demise of yet another president: Viktor Yushchenko is already incapable of changing the fate of his country. And that is the real moment of truth for Ukraine.
Sergei Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 02, 2007
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