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Hopes High on Capital Inflow to Make Up for Declining Oil Revenues
The Russian Central Bank’s gold and currency reserves are growing despite the narrowing trade balance surplus, bank officials reported Thursday. The reserve fund added $2 billion in the first week of March, according to the Central Bank. Market analysts believe that the growth is largely due to capital inflow in Russia, rather than to the influx of petrodollars.
Russia’s gold and currency reserves have reached a new record high, up 2 billion in one week, to $317.3 billion on March 9, the Central Bank said in a report on Thursday.
The Russian trade balance surplus amounted to $9.696 billion this January, 21.5 percent down from last January, according to the Central Bank. Imports went up 32.3 percent in January 2007, compared to January 2006.
Vladimir Pantyushin from Renaissance Capital notes that oil prices are still far lower than they were last year, which shows that export revenues are likely to keep on shrinking. “On the other hand, we are expecting a further growth in imports as the rubles is getting stronger and retail is booming,” he said in an interview with Kommersant.
Economics expect trade balance surplus to keep going down due to declining oil prices, which will be braking the growth of the gold and currency reserves. Meanwhile, net capital inflow to Russia in February is estimated to be worth $5 billion, according to Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexey Ulyukaev. This indicator is able to secure the further upward movement of the reserves fund.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 16, 2007
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