Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Victor Chernomyrdin and former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma in Kiev in 2006.
Photo: Konstantin Ilyanok
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The CIS Champion of Democracy
// Ukraine Walks the Tightrope between Moscow and the West
The Ukraine authorities had to have guessed that the visit to Ukraine by General Henry Obering, the head of the US Ballistic Missile Defense Agency, would provoke at least some level of annoyance in Russia. Moreover, taking into account that the general arrived in Kiev at the height of a Russian-American war of words concerning the expansion of America's missile defense system into Poland and the Czech Republic, the fact that Kiev not only allowed the overseer of the US missile defense system to visit but even received him at a fairly high level of government was very annoying indeed for Russia.
The actions of the Ukrainian authorities do have a certain logic of their own: the ballyhoo surrounding the question of the expansion of the American missile defense system in Europe gives Kiev a chance to stake out its own foreign policy course, the idea of which boils down to a balancing act between Moscow and the West.
Such a course was successfully charted by former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who flirted with the West right up to a discussion of the advantages for Ukraine of joining NATO, while all the while throwing adoring glances over his shoulder at Russia. This strategy brought more than a few dividends both for Mr. Kuchma personally, who managed to stay at the top of the political heap, and for Ukraine as a whole, which received cheap oil and gas from Russia while simultaneously building a relationship with the EU and NATO.
After the triumph of the Orange Revolution in December 2004 and the coming to power of the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko duo, Ukrainian foreign policy began to list sharply in the direction of the West. Eventually, however, the trend proved to be short-lived, and all Ukraine got out of it was the title of "CIS Champion of Democracy" and a gas war with Russia.
The political pendulum in Ukraine is now swinging in the opposite direction. Last spring Viktor Yanukovych, who since 2004 has reliably worn the label of "pro-Moscow politician," triumphantly returned to power when his party won the parliamentary elections. Since then, observers both in Ukraine and abroad have been talking about Kiev's return to the bosom of Russia.
At the same time, however, both the "pro-Western" Yushchenko and the "pro-Russian" Yanukovych understand that orienting themselves only towards the East or towards the West is ultimately not beneficial either for themselves or for their country, where each of them considers himself the key figure. Thus, immediately after assuming the position of prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych conveniently forgot about his solemn pre-election oath to make Russian the country's second official language. Then, during a visit to Brussels in September, he attempted to push through EU financing for the construction of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Western Europe that would bypass Russia entirely. During his December trip to the US, he promised not to sell Ukraine's gas pipeline network to Moscow and lobbied for his country to join the WTO before Russia. Meanwhile, Viktor Yushchenko got busy making overtures to Russia by firing his vehemently anti-Russian foreign minister, Boris Tarasyuk, and preparing for an official visit to Russia.
So no matter who eventually becomes the top dog in Ukrainian politics, the victor will unavoidably have to strive to balance his interests between Russia and the West based on the price that they have to offer for various concessions that Kiev could make. The American missile defense system will raise the stakes to tempting heights.
Gennady Sysoyev
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 15, 2007
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