President Bush, left, attends the ceremonial swearing-in of Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell at Bolling Air Force Base in Washington on Tuesday, February 20, 2007.
Photo: AP
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US Stance Hardens on Russia
// Senate Hears Unprecedented Anti-Putin Statements from American Official
United States National Intelligence Director John Michael McConnell has warned in remarks before the Senate Armed Services Committee that the recent tendency towards a harsher line from the Kremlin will inevitably lead to increasing antagonism between Russia and the United States. His statement is not only one of the most open expressions of Washington's displeasure with new trends visible in Russian politics. It also signifies that, although George Bush has made conciliatory remarks about continuing cooperation with Russia, the White House is not ruling out a reappraisal of its relationship with Moscow.
National Intelligence Director McConnell believes that Russia has recently been sliding backwards in its movement towards democracy. "The march for democracy has taken a step back. And now there are more arrangements to control the process and the populace and the parties and so on, to the point of picking the next leader of Russia," said Mr. McConnell, a retired vice-admiral in the US Navy, at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last Tuesday on the topic of current and future threats to US national security. In a document that ran to several dozen pages, Mr. McConnell laid out his thoughts issues that included Russian domestic and foreign policy.
In his opinion, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly under the influence of the siloviki, or so-called "strong men," in his inner circle. "Those that [Putin] is listening to…interpret things through a lens that portrays Russia as the downtrodden or [shows] we're trying to hold them back to the advantage of the United States," he said, adding, "My reading of that is they're not interpreting the lens correctly. But they have renewed energy and vigor because of the high price of oil."
Vice-Admiral McConnell, who was sworn in last week as national intelligence director (the federal overseer of all American intelligence services, including the CIA), says that Washington is seriously concerned that Russia, buoyed by high oil and gas prices, is increasingly inclined to flex its muscles.
"A flush economy and perceived policy successes at home and abroad have bolstered Russian confidence, enabled increased defense spending, and emboldened the Kremlin to pursue foreign policy goals that are not always consistent with those of Western institutions," said Mr. McConnell. In his estimation, this course will only become more pronounced as the Russian presidential elections in 2008 approach, which will be accompanied by an increasingly autocratic trend in the Kremlin's domestic policies.
On this basis, Mr. McConnell concluded that "Russian assertiveness will continue to inject elements of rivalry and antagonism into US dealings with Moscow, particularly our interactions in the former Soviet Union, and will dampen our ability to cooperate with Russia on issues ranging from counterterrorism and nonproliferation to energy and democracy promotion in the Middle East." In addition, "as the Litvinenko murder demonstrates, the steady accumulation of problems and irritants threatens to harm Russia’s relations with the West more broadly," he asserted.
Vice-Admiral McConnell's remarks were the most open in a string of recent pronouncements from US officials concerning Russia. Moscow, however, has so far declined to take too much offense.
"As a former specialist in Soviet affairs, Michael McConnell is in thrall to outdated and outmoded notions. His assessments are groundless and are completely at odds with the character and state of Russian-American relations," said Andrei Krivtsov, the deputy director of the Department of Press and Information at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Konstantin Kosachev, the chairman of the State Duma committee on international relations told Kommersant that "this is a classic example of officials influencing power. The problems and failures of American politicians have been known for a long time, and the most important one has been Iraq. It is these officials who drew America into that war, and now, in order to distract attention from their ineffectiveness and to prove their own importance, American officials have started to talk about the Russian threat." Mr. Kosachev believes that "Michael McConnell's remarks should not be taken as the official position of the United States with regard to Russia."
Vice-Admiral McConnell's criticism of the Kremlin's policies has coincided with similar remarks made by senior American politicians and military officials about Russia. Speaking at the same Senate committee meeting as Mr. McConnell, Lieutenant General Michael Maples, the director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, said that Russia, along with China, will continue to beef up its military capabilities in space.
Pentagon chief Robert Gates also discussed Russia's and China's military aspirations in an appearance on Tuesday before the Senate Appropriations Committee. Three weeks ago, during a discussion in the Senate of the US defense budget, Mr. Gates said that the modernization of the Russian and Chinese armies is one of the reasons that America should not be lax in modernizing its own armed forces. He repeated this opinion on Tuesday, adding that China and Russia are developing along "uncertain paths" and "pursuing sophisticated military modernization programs." Mr. Gates maintained that these circumstances, along with the danger posed by terrorism and the threats issuing from Iran and North Korea, are forcing the US to devote resources to defense that can "adequately meet those challenges." In mentioning Russia in the same breath with countries like Iran and North Korea, Mr. Gates effectively lumped Russia with countries that the US sees as a danger to its national security.
A Kommersant source close to the American administration confirmed that Vice-Admiral McConnell's comments were not unusual. "McConnell's point of view coincides with that of some in the American administration who see various possibilities for the evolution of events in Moscow," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He added that "the coming to power of the siloviki in Russia or increases in their influence over the president are entirely possible." According to the source, "Moscow and Washington will never pull back from cooperation in areas in which cooperation is essential, but talks on many aspects of bilateral and multilateral relations will become harsher and more protracted."
Over the last few months, Russia and the US have been assiduously trying not to play up the differences that are constantly being discovered between their positions. US President George Bush said several days ago that, despite the "difficult relationship" between Russia and the United States, the two sides can work together. That view was echoed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in a recent article for the Washington Post: "At a time when Russia is ready and eager to play a positive role in world affairs and integrate into the global economy, it does far more harm than good to treat Russia as a hostile nation whenever Moscow and Washington disagree." In Moscow, the prevailing conclusion seems to be that although a "strategic partnership" between Russia and the United States is no longer in the cards, cooperation between the two countries can continue successfully.
Still, however, Michael McConnell's comments testify that American unease at the new trends in Russian domestic and foreign policy is growing. Moreover, the national intelligence director was the first senior American official to give unambiguously air the possibility that the increasing discord between Moscow and Washington may not remain just on the level of an occasional war of words. As the rhetoric heats up, so will the level of the confrontation, meaning that a continued downward slide in relations could lead Washington to reevaluate its relationship with Moscow.
"The Evolution of Russia Makes Me Uneasy"
Apprehension about Russia's current and future course was also expressed yesterday by Nicolas Sarkozy, the conservative frontrunner in the French presidential race. The interior minister and leader of the ruling "Union for a Popular Movement" party held a press conference devoted exclusively to international affairs, at which he mentioned Russia in the context of a discussion of human rights. "Even if Russia and China are superpowers, that does not mean that we cannot condemn human rights violations that take place there. From that point of view, although I do not wish to interfere in the domestic affairs of a great nation like Russia, I should still say that the recent evolution of Russia makes me uneasy," said Mr. Sarkozy. He added that the silence of France and the West on the issue of "thousands of people killed and thousands made into refugees in Chechnya is just as unconscionable as indifference to the 200,000 victims of ethnic cleansing in Darfur."
Perhaps to mollify his harsh pronouncement, Mr. Sarkozy hastened to assure journalists that in his opinion Russia is not lost to the democratic world, and categorically dissociated himself from the proponents of so-called cultural relativism, who maintain that "some peoples are just not made for democracy, like, for example, our Russian friends."
Vera Medvedeva (Paris)
Gennady Sysoyev and Dmitry Sidorov (Washington)
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 01, 2007
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