Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, portrayed as a rocket, is seen on a carnival float during the traditional carnival parade in Dusseldorf, Germany, on Monday, February 27, 2006.
Photo: AP
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War and Nerves
// Iran Unfazed by US Threats
Today the ultimatum given by the United Nations Security Council to Iran regarding the country's nuclear program expires. The ultimatum calls on Tehran to cease its enrichment of uranium by February 21 or face additional sanctions. Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, defiant as ever, asserted that he does not intend to yield to the demands of the international community. In response, the American military has leaked information to the media regarding convert preparations for an invasion of Iran.
Washington Prepares for War
The contents of the secret plan to attack Iran, which was developed at the headquarters of the US Central Command in Tampa, Florida, were disclosed yesterday by the BBC. The British news service refused to divulge the source of the leak. According to the BBC, the list of primary targets for air strikes includes the atomic research center in Isfahan, the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, the nuclear power plant being built at Bushehr, and a secret installation at Arak.
Moreover, the BBC has revealed that US contingency plans for an attack on Iran include targets far beyond the country's nuclear facilities. Other possible targets include Iranian air and naval bases, antiaircraft installations, ordnance plants, and military command centers. Just a few weeks ago, however, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates maintained that the Pentagon had no plans for a military operation against Iran.
The leak that confirmed the existence of a covert plan of attack against Iran was not the only dramatic move to come out of Washington on the eve of the expiration of the UN ultimatum. At the end of last week, the American aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis arrived in the Persian Gulf to join the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, which has been deployed in the region since December 2006. The buildup of forces off Iran's shores is reminding many both in Iran and in the West of the preparations for the Iraq campaign in 2003: undoubtedly the reaction that Washington is counting on.
US President George Bush, who announced the deployment of additional troops to Iraq and the Persian Gulf last month, said that the American military will remain focused on Iraq. Yesterday, however, Vice-Admiral Patrick Walsh, the commander of the US Navy's 5th Fleet in the Persian Gulf, tacitly acknowledged that Iran is the US Navy's main focus.
According to Vice-Admiral Walsh, who will leave his post later this month to move higher in the Pentagon, the American naval presence in the Persian Gulf is in response to provocations from Iran. In particular, he pointed to Iran's excessively frequent military exercises over the last year in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, the outlet of the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. "The test-firing of Shahab-3 rockets in the Strait of Hormuz not long ago disturbs us greatly. The tests mean that the safe passage of civilian ships through the strait can no longer be guaranteed," said Vice-Admiral Walsh, adding that "they are threatening to use oil as a weapon. They are threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. Such a combination of rhetoric, tone, and aggressive exercises cannot fail to arouse alarm. We can draw only one conclusion: that it is provocation aimed at intimidating the entire region."
In comparison to the beginning of the Iraq campaign, two aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf in the vicinity of Iran is not much to speak of. On the eve of the war in Iraq, seven aircraft carriers were deployed in the region: the American ships Kitty Hawk, Constellation, Harry Truman, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and George Washington, and the British vessel Royal Ark. However, the buildup of forces in that case was fairly rapid: in January 2003, three months before the beginning of the war, only two aircraft carriers were stationed in the Persian Gulf.
Tehran Prepares for the Atom
Of course, the demonstration of American military might in the Persian Gulf is a direct response to Iran's disregard for the international ultimatum. Over the last two months, the authorities in Tehran have repeatedly said that they will not cease the enrichment of uranium, a statement that flies in the face of the UN's demands. Yesterday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again asserted his position in a speech before a crowd of thousands in Gilan, saying that Iran will stop enriching uranium only when the West agrees to do the same: "Why can their uranium-enrichment plants operate, while they demand that we close ours? Iranians will fight to the end to defend their right to the peaceful atom!"
Tehran is taking steps of its own in response to America's preparations for war. According to the Iranian media, the new round of military exercises undertaken in Iran on Monday by corps of Revolutionary Guards is in preparation for the defense of strategic facilities, including nuclear sites, from air strikes. Iranian state television also reported yesterday that several Iranian patrol boats have buzzed Iraqi oil extraction platforms in the northern part of the Persian Gulf , as well as American aircraft carriers, presumably to evaluate the reaction from the US Navy. There was no response from the Americans.
Until now, Iran has not been unduly alarmed by the bellicose rumblings from American officials and military leaders. All reports of America's intent to launch a military strike against Iran have been dismissed by Tehran as bluffs, a certainty that is largely based on the fact that support for President Bush and his foreign policy is nowhere near as high as it was before the beginning of the Iraq campaign four years ago. Moreover, while the American administration then enjoyed carte blanche from both chambers of the Republican Congress, that is no longer true. At the end of last week, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said that President Bush does not have the authority to launch a military operation against Iran without consent from the US Congress, something that the president is not likely to receive now that Congress is in the hands of Democrats hostile to the White House.
Moscow Prepares for Peace
At a meeting today in Vienna, IAEA head Mohammad ElBaradei was due to present the members of the UN Security Council with his report in the situation in Iran. His conclusions are easy to predict. In an interview with the Financial Times yesterday, Mr. ElBaradei already confirmed that Iran does not intend to cease its enrichment of uranium and estimated that Iran could have the capacity to reach industrial-scale enrichment within six months to a year. He also predicted that unilateral sanctions against Tehran would be ineffective and would only serve to radicalize the Iranian regime. However, in the wake of President Putin's speech in Munich last week, it is unlikely that Russia will permit the imposition of serious sanctions against Iran, especially since the nuclear trade between Moscow and Tehran appears to be continuing.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 21, 2007
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