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Choix Cornélien
Ségolène Royal’s current falling behind Nicolas Sarkozy of France's center-right party might be the ruin of hopes of French Socialists to take over the Élysée Palace this spring. Socialists themselves and their candidate explain the unpromising polling results by weak actions of their pre-election camp. However, it is much deeper than that.
When in November 2006 Ségolène Royal won with a landslide the right to become the Socialist party’s presidential candidate, the outcome of the upcoming presidential election seemed to be decided. Royal seemed to have all advantages on her side. First, she is one of the most charming and attractive women in France. Second, she is a new person in big politics, not mixed in various scandals. Meanwhile, political forces of the right seem to be disunited, with current president Jacques Chirac being at swords' points with his potential successor Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.
However, just a couple of months passed, and the advantage, which Royal had of her chief rival at the start, began melting and grew into falling behind. Urgent measures that the Socialists are now taking will hardly save the situation, because Royal’s failure is not so much due to the mistakes of her party, but to the present-day geopolitical alignment.
Traditionally, Western Europe is the arena for the confrontment between powers for more pro-Atlantic (that is, pro-US) policy and forces defending Europe’s independence of its oversea partner. In recent years, the pro-Atlantists seem to have lost the initiative. Their positions were undermined by the defeat of right-wing forces in Spain in 2004, and in Italy last year. Besides, the expected resignation of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is considered Washington’s consistent ally, goes completely along the pattern.
Thus, France’s presidential election acquires a special significance. The pro-Atlantic forces will do their best to force the trend to make a U-turn. And they have good chances to do so.
Although France is considered one of anti-Atlantic leaders, it cannot be called an ardent supporter of the idea of the United States of Europe. Otherwise, the French wouldn’t have voted against the constitution of united Europe at the referendum. Meanwhile, Nicolas Sarkozy offers a moderate course: European policy plus closer relations with the U.S. Besides, another lady-politician has already declared her intention to take up the banner of united Europe. It is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It would be difficult for Ségolène Royal to be Merkel’s rival on the European scene.
Finally, the French have not yet forgotten the shock of last presidential election, when after a sensational failure in the first round of the Socialist candidate, extreme nationalist leader Jean Marie le Pen made his way into the second round together with Jacques Chirac. Thus, the majority of French voters must have already decided that it is better not to risk and to postpone the experiment with “the most charming and attractive” till better times.
Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 20, 2007
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