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France Falls Out Of Love With Ségolène Royal
// French pre-election race intensifies
Ségolène Royal, French presidential candidate of the Socialist party, yesterday announced that she changes her pre-election strategy. Just two months ago, she was the absolute favorite in the competition. Polling shows that she is now falling behind her main rival Nicolas Sarkozy by 10 percent already. In the two last months before the presidential election, the situation might change even stronger: what if France’s next president will be not Sarkozy, and not Royal, but a third little-known candidate.
Weakening Woman
“Monsieur, would you please switch over to another channel? The TV is spoiling my appetite,” a lady smiles politely to a waiter in a café in Paris. The TV is showing Ségolène Royal’s speech at a rally.
“Madame, would you please take a seat at another table, far from the TV. The matter is that other channels usually show the Interior Minister. But we don’t want to frighten our customers like that,” says the waiter sarcastically.
The current French pre-election campaign is the struggle of two aversions. One half of France hates Nicolas Sarkozy, another can’t stand Ségolène Royal.
“We haven’t had so tense elections for a long time. In 2002, many voters did not care who wins: the right or the left. Now, almost no one is indifferent,” political experts say.
Royal has been out of luck recently: she loses voters’ support more and more. All troubles began with her own family first. Royal’s main promoter to presidency was her common-law spouse, Socialist party leader François Hollande. Socialists’ nerve center, devoid of charisma, he realized he cannot win the presidential election, or even the nomination for presidency in his own party. Thus, he put the stakes on beautiful Royal, the mother of his four children. It went smoothly at first, but then the pre-election family team broke up. Ill-wishers claim that fracas have been shacking the Socialist camp for a few months already. A few weeks ago, prominent Socialist Arnaud Montebourg joked that "Ségolène Royal has only one flaw: It's her partner". François Hollande immediately ousted Montebourg. Another one to flee the Socialist camp was Royal’s top economic advisor Eric Besson: he disagreed with Hollande on Royal’s economic policy program.
Back in December, Royal was ahead of Sarkozy (on the condition they would have met in the election’s second round) 55 percent against 45 percent. Now, the situation is right the reverse. Failure in the race made Royal think of changing the campaign radically. She promised yesterday to announce already this week a large-scale reshuffle in her camp. Sarkozy, while visiting La Reunion island, responded with a malicious jest: “She doesn’t need to change anything. If you cannot manage your family, then you cannot rule France.”
Strong Electorate
Headquarters of the Socialist party on Solferino street is a small temple to Ségolène Royal. There is a huge display by the entrance, right on the street, which shows Royal’s last speech 24 hours a day. There are roses everywhere inside (rose is the Socialists’ symbol), and posters with Royal’s portrait.
The Socialist camp members keep saying they do not believe the polls, and will disregard them. They have, indeed, a very strong argument, -- the 2002 election. Back then, public opinion experts were sure that Jacques Chirac of the right and Lionel Jospin of the left will meet in the second round. Not a single poll gave the second place to Jean Marie le Pen, leader of the ultra-right National Front.
“It seems unimaginable now that the Socialists will fail,” said independent political expert Nicolas Baverez. “France still remembers the catastrophe of April 21, 2002. No one went to vote then, thinking that Chirac and Jospin were passing anyway, and that the real election would be in the second round. Everything is different now. The Socialists are getting more active.”
Another reason not to believe the polls is the French electoral system. Citizens of France do not become voters automatically. It is necessary to come to a voting station and sign up in advance. Thus, only people of active citizenship become voters. On the contrary, all citizens, no matter whether they have signed up or not, take part in telephone polling.
So far the descendants of immigrants, residents of troubled suburbs, kept away from elections. However, the success of nationalist Jean Marie le Pen at last elections mobilized them too. In recent months, great number of first-generation French citizens signed up for voting.
“We remember November 2005, the riots in the suburbs. Do you remember what it began with? With the Interior Minister’s provocation, who called all of us ‘rubbish’,” says Abudi, young resident of Marseille, of Algerian origin. He works as an ‘animator’, member of a social service dealing with the socialization of immigrants’ children, organizing free hobby groups and clubs for them. He admits that his friends never forgave Sarkozy for those words. “We are now going from door to door, urging young people and their parents to vote. Naturally, we do not tell them who they should vote for,” says Abudi.
It is not a secret who the suburbs might vote for. Royal address perhaps the most passionate part of her recent campaign speech.
“I will love your children just like I love my own ones! I will take care of disadvantaged youths like I take care of my family,” she was saying tear-eyed. They say many immigrant women cried in front of TVs.
Third Candidate
The fall in Royal’s popularity might be explained by the fact that journalists changed their attitude to her. Last year, they were enchanted and did not pay attention to mistakes. Now, however, their tone became very critical. Last week, TF1 channel’s daily news presenter Jean-Pierre Pernaut called Royal’s campaign ‘confused and ill-managed’, but Sarkozy’s actions ‘calm and reasonable’. TF1 is obviously on the right, but such frankness became scandalous. Only left-wing Libération supports Royal, while Le Figaro newspaper and Paris Match magazine openly support Sarkozy.
Unfriendly press is also playing against Royal by giving special attention to the third presidential candidate, centrist François Bayrou. His photographs are published next to those of the two favorites, while other candidates are often mentioned just in one line. Polls showing that Bayrou’s popularity is growing are being published everywhere. Le Figaro claims that it is Bayrou’s economic program that French voters trust most. Sarkozy has the second place, and Royal – the third. By the way, the centrist, unlike his rivals, has not yet presented his economic program.
“The basis of Bayrou’s political platform is the departure from the out-dated division into the right and the left. He will unite France,” said Hervé Morin, head of UDF faction in Parliament (UDF is Bayrou’s party).
According to polls, Bayrou is rapidly taking supporters away from Royal. A month ago, she had 29 percent, against his 11 percent. Now it is 26 percent against 14 percent. Bayrou is already ahead of Jean Marie le Pen, and has the third place in the list of candidates.
“Bayrou is like David who fights against two Goliaths,” says political expert Nicolas Baverez, “he criticizes Sarkozy and Royal, earning points for himself. Meanwhile, no one criticizes him. They are busy with each other. Bayrou earns most on Royal’s mistakes.”
“Can he come ahead of her, and get into the second round?”
“If she crashes completely.”
UDF faction has a different opinion. Hervé Morin uses statistic data to assert the success of his party’s leader.
“There are two pre-election campaign laws in France. First law: the one who was the favorite one year before election, was never elected president. François Miterrand was to win in 1974. Yet, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing won. In 1981, Michel Rocard lost to François Mitterrand. In 1988, Jacques Chirac was the favorite, but Mitterrand managed to be re-elected. In 1995, everyone staked on Édouard Balladur, but Chirac became the president. And in 2002, everyone was sure that Jospin would win, but he didn’t even make it to the second round. Second law: the candidate whose rating is falling cannot change the trend and keeps falling. On the contrary, the one who goes up, wins. It means that Sarkozy and Bayrou will make their way into the second round, and on May 6 François Bayrou will become the new president.
Hervé Morin smiles. Apparently, he himself finds his daring forecast funny. However, he can afford it: his candidate is not hated by anyone, unlike the race’s two leaders.
Bayrou takes advantage of Royal’s weakness to draw over the Socialists. For instance, he announced yesterday that if he becomes president, he will appoint a Socialist as prime minister. However, the fate of the Élysée Palace now depends not on him, and not even on Sarkozy, but on how much Royal falls. And on whether she crashes after falling.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 20, 2007
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