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The Bush Administration's New Lifeline
// Is a New Arms Race Brewing Between Russia and the US?
The results of the vote in the US Congress on Iraq could be a turning point in the confrontation between the American Democrats and the administration of President George Bush. And it's not only the fact that, with the recent vote, the Democrats reinforced the success that they achieved in last November's congressional elections. This may be the first time that the current president's team has seen its members jumping ship to join the ranks of the Democrats, but it certainly won't be the last.
No what its official representatives say about the "nonbinding character" of the resolutions in Congress, the White House has to understand that. The administration also understands that continuing on this path will unavoidably lead to a crushing defeat for the Republicans in the 2008 presidential elections.
It is commonly supposed that only a military campaign against Iran can save the Bush administration from its failures in Iraq by changing the mood of the American people. They're undoubtedly thinking the same thing in the White House, which has been deploying more aircraft carriers and additional troops to the Middle East. The Democrats have also figured that out, and are trying to disrupt President Bush's preparations for another war.
However, Iran might not be the only possible lifeline for the Bush administration. Russia might also save the Republicans – if it wades into another round of the arms race with the US. Recently, several figures in the president's inner circle appear to have been goading Moscow towards such a move, so far unsuccessfully. In May of last year, Vice-President Dick Cheney gave a speech that featured the harshest criticism of Russia heard since the time of the Cold War, in which he accused Russia of "blackmail," "intimidation," "undermining the territorial integrity of [its] neighbors," and "interfering with democratic movements." A few days later, the Russian president responded to the vice-president's remarks with a metaphor about a hungry "wolf who eats and listens to no one."
At the beginning of February, Pentagon chief Robert Gates, arguing in favor of increasing the US defense budget, basically classified Russia among America's potential opponents. In reply to Mr. Gates came Vladimir Putin's speech in Munich, the tone of which was the most aggressive in relation to the United States that has been heard during Mr. Putin's presidency.
Finally, the Bush administration has chosen this moment to begin to force the issue of expanding America's ballistic missile defense system into the Czech Republic and Poland. Russia's answers were statements from the president, the defense minister, and the army chief of staff regarding the possibility that Russia will back out of an agreement to destroy mid- and short-range missiles. With that, the issue stopped being a war of words and began to take on the tenor of retaliatory threats.
If Russia does wade into a new arms race, the cost will be high both materially (increased military spending) and politically (worsening relations with Europe). And all so that the current US administration can have a shot at not losing the 2008 elections.
Gennady Sysoyev
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 19, 2007
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