Hands Off "the Hand of Moscow"
// George Bush Defends Vladimir Putin
Yesterday US President George Bush held his first press conference of the year, during which he gave an appraisal of relations with Russia. The journalists were not subjected to a sharp rebuff of Vladimir Putin's speech in Munich, in which the Russian president had unusually harsh words to say about the US. Instead, while Mr. Bush admitted that relations with Moscow are strained, he promised to continue working together with Russia. In particular, the White House is counting on Moscow's support on the eve of a showdown with Iran. However, many in Washington believe that the White House is ready to take a harsher line in its relations with Russia if Moscow decides to drag its feet on the resolution of the Iranian question. Kommersant correspondent Dmitry Sidorov has the details from Washington.
Five Minutes About Russia
Mr. Bush has not talked to the press in almost two months - before yesterday's press conference, his last meeting with journalists in the White House was on December 20 of last year. Since then, however, many important events have taken place, and everyone is waiting for an explanation of America's moves from the head of the White House on issues ranging from the new US policy in Iraq, the further escalation of the Iranian crisis, and, last but not least, the speech delivered by Russian President Vladimir Putin last week at the security conference in Munich. Mr. Putin's speech was the harshest criticism of the US to come out of the Kremlin since Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev's scandalous outburst at the United Nations more than 45 years ago.
Thus, it came as no surprise that a question about Russia kicked off the interactive portion of the press conference in the East Room of the White House: "Mr. President, on Russia. Is the Vladimir Putin who said the United States is undermining global security and provoking a new arms race the same Vladimir Putin whose soul you looked into and found to be trustworthy? Has he changed? Are U.S.-Russian relations deteriorating?"
George Bush, who was clearly prepared for the topic, fielded the question smoothly. " I think the person who I was referring to in 2001 is the same strong-willed person," said Mr. Bush in response, remembering his first face-to-face meeting with President Putin in Ljubljana in June 2001. However, the journalists did not let him slip off the hook too easily on the topic of Russia, and the president was soon groping for the words to explain how his many years of personal friendship with Vladimir Putin can survive in the face of the staunch antagonism with which his Russian colleague has reacted to the expansion of NATO. "I've tried to convince Vladimir that NATO is positive. It's a positive influence, that democracies on your border are good things to have. The democracies tend not to fight each other," said Mr. Bush, adding that "I firmly believe NATO is a stabilizing influence for the good, and that helps Russia," though he acknowledged that "evidently [Vladimir Putin] disagrees with that assessment."
Warming to his subject over the next five minutes or so, Mr. Bush attempted to accent the positive aspects of relations between Washington and Moscow, seeking all the while to convince the assembled journalists of the importance of the Russia's role in resolving the Iranian and Korean crises and in pursuing nuclear nonproliferation. As examples, he trotted out the recently-adopted UN Security Council resolutions that impose sanctions on Iran and North Korea. According to President Bush, these resolutions were possible because the US and Russia were able to overcome their differences of opinion on the proper approach to the nuclear problems in Iran and North Korea.
While he acknowledged that American-Russian relations are "complicated" and that "there are disagreements" between the two countries, Mr. Bush nevertheless concluded his response to the question about the relationship with Russia and its leader on an optimistic note, saying, 'we can find common ground to solve problems. And that's the spirit – that's the spirit I'll continue to work with Vladimir Putin on." And with that, the topic of Russia was laid to rest, at least for the moment.
Who "Lost Russia"?
According to Kommersant sources close to the White House, President Bush has preferred to sweep the Munich affair under the rug and to act as though the relationship between the US and Russia has not been under unusual pressure both from domestic and foreign policy circumstances. In particular, the president is worried that any acknowledgment of disagreements with Russia could be seized upon by the Democrats and turned to their advantage. "President Bush chose the most neutral answer possible to the question about President Putin, because any other commentary would have handed his domestic political opponents yet another trump card," said a Kommersant source within the administration.
In our source's opinion, a harsh response to the Kremlin from George Bush would have presented the Democrats with an excellent opportunity to turn back on the Republicans the accusation of "losing Russia" that the right wing flung at President Clinton at the end of his eight-year term in the 1990s, after the "honeymoon" with President Boris Yeltsin was over. Any cutting words about Russia from Mr. Bush would have been tantamount to admitting the failure of his seven-year relationship with Moscow, which has largely been built on a personal friendship between the two presidents. Hillary Clinton, one of the leading presidential challengers from the Democratic camp, has already unambiguously let it be known that the Democrats are prepared to play the "Russian card" against President Bush, whom they view as a lame duck. In November of last year, Senator Clinton accused the Bush administration of costing America Russia's support with its political bumbling.
However, an overly positive assessment of relations with Russia would have also been ammunition in the hands of Mr. Bush's opponents in Congress. Had that been the case, his enemies could have immediately whipped out a list of Moscow's "friendly steps" that have significantly hindered Washington's activities and aspirations around the world, including the delivery of new Russian Top-M1 missiles to Iran that was reported in December of last year.
Iran Puts the Frosting on the Cake
Meanwhile, many observers in Washington believe that President Bush had other reasons besides his problematic relations with Congress and the lack of any real means of exerting pressure on Moscow for shying away from taking a harsh tone in relation to Russia. In the opinion of experts, despite the fact that many in the administration, including Vice-President Dick Cheney, are dissatisfied with Russia, George Bush has to be careful not to overstep himself on the eve of a decisive political showdown over Iran. In the wake of Iran's recent defiance of UN Security Council resolution #1737, which called on Tehran to cease its enrichment of uranium, the Security Council must now revisit the Iranian question. President Bush is now relying heavily on "mutual understanding" to overcome any disagreements with Russia. At the same time, according experts such as to Andrew Kuchins, the director the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), if the Kremlin blocks the introduction of harsh sanctions against Iran, the White House may well harden its line against Moscow. In that case, Congress is likely to be more indulgent, and the issue hopefully will not cause undue friction between the executive and legislative branches.
In the opinion of many American experts, the administration is attempting to avoid such a turn of events and is waiting for conciliatory gestures from the Russian side. For its part, however, Moscow is looking less likely to take any step back and more inclined to adopt an even rougher tone. In his speech in Munich, Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia was not threatened by the elements of the American anti-ballistic missile defense system that are slated to be installed in Europe; instead, he was piqued that the Americans were preparing the expansion without consulting Moscow.
Yesterday Russian army chief of staff General Yury Baluyevsky expressed a harsher position, saying that Russia may begin to dismantle all of the existing agreements and laws that restrict nuclear proliferation if the US goes forward with its plans to establish a missile defense system on Russia's borders. "What the Americans are doing today, creating a third region of the missile defense system in Europe, is inexplicable," declared General Balyevsky. He also warned that Moscow may unilaterally withdraw from an arms reduction treaty that bans medium- and short-range missiles.
Dmitry Sidorov (in Washington)
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 16, 2007
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