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Shock and Awe II
// America Prepares for "Retaliation" Against Iran
The most recent accusations against Iran, in which the Americans allege that Iran is secretly supplying arms to Iraq that are killing American soldiers, are not simply a desire to explain the growing number of US casualties in the course of the Iraq war. They are also reserve preparations for the launch of a US military strike against Iran.
Until now, America's basic reason for wanting to punish Iran was the country's nuclear program. That reason appeared to have some possibility of serving as a feasible pretext, since it had already been used to good effect in neighboring Iraq. Tehran, like Baghdad and Saddam Hussein before it, was initially suspected of secretly developing a military nuclear program and wanting to possess an atomic bomb. Then traces of enriched uranium were found at several facilities on its territory, and the discoveries only served to reinforce those suspicions, regardless of Tehran's explanations of where the uranium could have come from. Then came a laundry list of demands for international inspections by the IAEA of all suspicious facilities. And finally sanctions - though limited, they were sanctions all the same - were slapped on Iran, whose continued defiance opened the door to more serious punishments.
However, it appears as though the US now believes that accusing Tehran of nuclear noncompliance will not serve as sufficient grounds for launching a military operation against Iran, should such an operation become necessary. After all, that option presupposes cooperation with the EU and Russia, which are not likely to give their approval to a strike against Iran. And that's not even considering that the UN Security Council is involved in that matter, whether the US likes it or not.
Thus the US has decided to wheel out the backup option. In contrast to the basic option, this one has a number of advantages from the point of view of Washington's likely plans. First and foremost, it does not require any of the prolonged and painstaking work involved in trying to bust Tehran for its nuclear program. Another two or three presentations (for selected journalistic circles) of weapons taken from captured Iranian agents, and the conclusion of Iran's "unequivocal armed interference" in Iraq can be drawn.
In addition, by rolling out its backup option, America can get by without the approval or tacit agreement of other world powers. The logic is simple: Iran is supplying weapons to Shi'ite militants in Iraq, who are using those weapons to kill American soldiers; thus, Iran is attacking the United States. And that gives America all the reason in the world to retaliate. No Security Council sanctions and no dreary persuasion of the rest of the world. The US can launch a military strike as it sees fit.
If it is true that Washington is, in fact, preparing this backup plan to launch a military operation against Iran, it also has to be true that President George Bush has already made the decision. And now it's only a matter of time before "Shock and Awe II" gets underway.
Gennady Sysoyev
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 13, 2007
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