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Stepfather of All Turkmen
// Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov Elected President
What Awaits Turkmenistan After the Presidential Elections
Yesterday the first presidential elections in Turkmenistan's history as an independent nation took place, after President-for-life Saparmurat Niyazov, who ruled the country for more than 20 years, died last December without naming a successor. The vote was in essence a coronation of Turkmenbashi's heir-apparent, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who has governed the country since Niyazov's death. Although the president has promised reforms, real changes in Turkmenistan will probably be a long time in coming. Meanwhile, disillusionment may lie ahead for Russia and other countries competing for the goodwill of the reclusive, gas-rich Central Asian nation.
The elections in Turkmenistan were declared finished after only four hours of voting, with a 95% turnout. Young people who came to vote were presented with a copy of Turkmenbashi's Ruhnama, three thorough readings of which, according to the author, guarantee a spot in heaven. Though the handful of journalists who came to cover the election were told by their official minders to wait in their hotels for news of the outcome, the inauguration was already scheduled for February 14, effectively making a second round of voting impossible (a second round would theoretically be necessary if none of the six candidates received more than 50% of the vote). In effect, the outcome of yesterday's election was determined on December 26, when the People's Assembly of Turkmenistan unanimously chose Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov to be one of the six candidates for president.
A lack of real opposition figures in the country meant that Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov's victory over the lackluster field of challengers on February 11 was never particularly in doubt. Anyone who could have posed a threat to an orderly succession was already in jail or in foreign exile, and in any case no names were permitted on the ballot besides those of the six official candidates, all little-known politicians, chosen by the People's Assembly. The head of the elections committee also all but openly declared support for Mr. Berdymukhamedov, and in the weeks before the election the state television channel showed almost no one else.
On the eve of the elections, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov cautiously spoke in favor of social and economic reforms, promised to allow the Turkmen people to have access to the internet, and even proposed the creation of a multiparty political system in the country. Many people quickly took up the idea of imminent change in the air. "Changes are unavoidable in Turkmenistan," said Bayram Shikhmuradov, one of the leaders of the country's Republican Party and the son of disgraced former foreign minister Boris Shikhmuradov. "Berdymukhamedov could have not promised reform, and it wouldn't have impacted the outcome of the elections. He is trying to muster support in the world and to humanize Turkmenistan's image abroad. Now the level of influence that other nations have on Turkmenistan will increase. I mean in terms of closer relations than under Niyazov."
However, many politicians who were forced to leave the country by Niyazov disagree. "Reforms in Turkmenistan are essential, but those who are behind the wheel there these days cannot carry them out. They can do what Niyazov did: sell gas. Russia, Ukraine, China – whoever pays the most. There isn't enough money even for the timid reforms promised by Berdymukhamedov," said Turkmen former deputy prime minister Nazar Suyunov, who lives in Moscow.
Even harsher words came from former vice prime minister and head of the Central Bank of Turkmenistan Khudaiberdy Orazov, who is currently the leader of the Vatan ("Motherland") movement. "Nothing will seriously change in Turkmenistan. Power will stay in the hands of a junta of five or six people. Even if the new regime gives people a few freedoms, they will quickly take them back again – that's how dictatorships work."
Nevertheless, many opponents of the current authorities in Ashgabat acknowledge that many world powers will not be overly concerned by the authoritarian character of the Turkmen regime and will continue to jockey for access to Turkmenistan's main natural resource: gas. "After Niyazov's death, democratic countries, chiefly the US, had much to say about democratization and human rights, but in the end the West made a deal with the junta," maintains Khudaiberdy Orazov. "For example, the OSCE sent experts instead of observers to the elections. Now the junta can say that the elections took place under the aegis of the OSCE, and the OSCE has saved face, even though everyone knows that the elections were a farce. Apparently, there is a deal between the junta and the West. It's too bad, but that's obviously the way things stand."
Meanwhile, however, many of those who are seeking Turkmenistan's favor are likely to be disappointed. Evaluations of the country's gas riches may have been seriously overinflated, and the grand gestures of the Turkmen authorities, both current and present, which have enticed numerous potential foreign customers, may be just another of Ashgabat's games.
"Everyone had to make do with information from Niyazov about Turkmenistan's gas reserves, which were said to be 22 trillion or even 44 trillion cubic meters. But in reality the only gas field in Turkmenistan was opened under the USSR and has been being exploited ever since," said Khudaiberdy Orazov. "It is completely possible that Turkmenistan has a lot of gas. But first it has to be found, a gas field has to be opened, and extraction has to begin. And no one has done that for 15 years, and in the meantime the Geology Ministry has been disbanded and many specialists have left for Russia or let the profession lapse," he said.
Mr. Orazov's pessimism is echoed by Nazar Suyunov, who formerly served as Turkmenistan's oil and gas minister. "Discussions of Turkmenistan's gas reserves actually mean potential reserves. In order to turn that into an industry, exploration and survey work are needed, which in turn require enormous investment. And in order to attract [investment], there needs to be a [certain] sociopolitical climate that does not exist in the country. The current leadership is not capable of carrying out the necessary reforms. They need specialists, and there have been none in Turkmenistan for a long time."
According to Mr. Suyunov, it is entirely possible that Ashgabat is selling foreigners the proverbial cat in the sack. "Turkmenistan is currently extracting 50 billion cubic meters of gas a year," said the former oil and gas minister. "That is how much the country is supposed to be selling to Gazprom over the next few years. But Niyazov also signed an agreement with Beijing, according to which starting from 2009 the Chinese are supposed to received 30 billion cubic meters of a gas a year from gas fields that they are supposed to develop themselves. But if there isn't that much gas in those deposits, China will demand that gas from deposits that are already being exploited – there's a clause in the agreement about that. And then Turkmenistan will just have to slash the Russians' share."
So within the next few years, a cold shower may well await Russia and other foreign investors in the Turkmen desert.
Gennady Sysoyev
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 12, 2007
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