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Sitting Between Two Chairs
// The Time Has Come for Russia to Make a Choice on Iran
The arrival in Moscow of the experienced Iranian diplomat Ali Akbar Velayati, who brought Vladimir Putin a personal message from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was accompanied by much fawning over Russia and its role in the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue. However, this sycophancy should not be interpreted as evidence of total understanding between Moscow and Tehran on the nuclear question. It's more likely that completely different motives rule the day: that the praises sung by Iran are in tacit calculation that Moscow will quash America's aggressive posturing on the Iranian question, a task with which it has been having some luck of late. There is nothing unusual about Iran's motives. The surprising thing is something else entirely. It turns out that Moscow's position on the Iranian nuclear question satisfies not only Tehran, but also those on the other side of the barricade: namely, Washington, which, according to Iran's plan, Moscow should be restraining. "The Russians are playing a positive role in trying to convince the Iranians to behave responsibly," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. He made that statement just as Mr. Velayati was wrapping up his mission to Moscow.
So the two opposing camps have simultaneously started talking about Moscow's "positive role." Russia is probably the only country in the so-called Iranian Group of Six that enjoys the trust of both sides. In that sense, its position is unique. But can this be considered a victory for Russian diplomacy, which in the matter of Iran has been adroitly steering a course between Scylla and Charybdis? Not likely.
In fact, the statements that have been issuing from Tehran and Washington shine a light on a dilemma that is becoming more torturous for Moscow by the day. Sitting on two seats at once turns out to be not just uncomfortable, but also a heaven-sent opportunity that cannot last forever. In essence, in making polite gestures towards Russia, both Iran and the US understand the country's current position. And they are reminding it that it is time to make a decision. They are putting the question to Russia point-blank: Whose side are you on? And the option "we're on everyone's side" isn't acceptable. Because in both Iran and the US, the powers-that-be prefer monosyllabic, ironclad decisions. In order to have their way, they're not afraid to grab the battering rams and go head to head. Battle is their element. And in this battle they need dyed-in-the-wool allies, battle-tested warriors, not "countries with unclear positions," as Pentagon chief Robert Gates called Russia in consigning it, along with Iran, to the list of threats facing the US.
In playing the game of diplomacy simultaneously on two fields, the Iranian and the American, Moscow has not only reaped dividends from its position – it has also made itself a hostage to the promises and obligations it has given to both sides. The concession to Washington was the Russian "yes" on UN Security Council resolution #1737 on Iran. The concession to Tehran was the Russian acknowledgement of Iran's right to develop its own nuclear program. Today, these circumstances are colliding, making Moscow's position more and more contradictory. So the time has come to make a choice.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 09, 2007
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