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UN Paints a Dire Picture of Russian Demographics
The United Nations has published a report on world demographic tendencies, in which the population of the Earth is predicted to be 9 billion by 2050. The rate of population growth will slow to 35 million per year, half of what it is now. The population of Russia is expected to be reduced by 20 percent in 43 years, and specialists warn that that figure could be twice as large if authorities continue ineffective demographic policies.
The report says that the population of the planet will be 6.6 billion by July of this year, which is 150 percent higher than the population in 1950. Developing countries will account exclusively for population growth, with developed countries losing 1 million people per year. The population of Russia is expected to shrink from its current 143 million to 113 million in the period under consideration.
Rosstat, the Russian state statistics service, gives a more optimistic estimate of 123.2 million people in 2051. “The UN experts underestimate the mass distribution of the tendency toward small families,” opined Anatoly Antonov of the sociology department of Moscow State University. “The maximum size of the population that can be expected by 2050 is 8 billion, and after 2070-2090, that indicator will fall.” Experts note that, besides worldwide tendencies, Russia faces factors that other countries do not. “The USSR was keeping up with other countries until 1970,” Antonov observed. “Then the West began to invest seriously in preventative health care. Russian medicine is still practically military.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Russian demographics in his 2006 message to the Federal Assembly. He announced a new policy to encourage larger families and reduce the mortality rate through stricter supervision of alcohol sales. Those measures are insufficient, however, Antonov stated. He warned that, if stronger measures are not taken, the population of Russia may be reduced by 40-50 million by 2050.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 08, 2007
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