Chinese President Hu Jintao, left, shakes hands with Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo as he arrives in Abuja, Nigeria, on Wednesday April 26, 2006.
Photo: AP
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The Chinese People's Republic of Africa
// Will Chinese Peacekeepers Soon Embark on a Conquest of the Black Continent?
Yesterday Chinese leader Hu Jintao set off on an epic tour of Africa, during which he will visit eight African countries in twelve days. It is expected that, in addition to signing trade agreements, Mr. Hu will lobby for the deployment of Chinese peacekeepers on the continent, particularly in war-torn Darfur, where Chinese state-owned oil monopolies have multibillion-dollar contracts. Unfortunately for the United States, the European Union, and Russia, Beijing's open foray into Africa has the potential to seriously jeopardize their future in the region.
Beijing's Overtures
Hu Jintao's Africa tour will be the Chinese head of state's most extensive visit to the continent since he came to power in 2003. Mr. Hu visited Africa on short trips to two countries each time in February 2004 and April of last year, but this time he is leaving nothing off the itinerary: in twelve days, the Chinese premier will visit Cameroon, Liberia, Sudan, Zambia, Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique, and the Seychelles. His visit comes on the heels of the "China – Africa" forum that took place in grand style in November 2006, when Beijing hosted delegations from 48 of the 53 countries in Africa, including 35 presidents. The list of invitees even included a few of the continent's more odious leaders, such as Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, both of whom have reputations in the West as bloody dictators. Undaunted, Beijing trotted out a delegation of the Party's top leadership, with Hu Jintao at its head, for a pompous reception ceremony on Tiananmen Square. In addition, Mr. Hu has promised to furnish Africa with $5 billion in loans and credits by 2009, and Chinese state-owned companies have signed 16 contracts with African heads of state to the tune of $1.9 billion.
The main topic at the forum in Beijing was the growing Chinese economy's increasing interest in Africa's rich natural resources, particularly its oil. China began to take an active interest in Africa in the 1990s, but it was not until Hu Jintao assumed the premiership that relations with Africa became one of the tacit priorities of Chinese foreign policy. At the present moment, one-third of the oil China consumes (around 800,000 barrels a day) is imported from Africa. Since 2000 the volume of trade between China and Africa has grown fivefold and now exceeds $55 billion, of which 40% was in the last year alone.
Africa has become a major source of raw materials and an important trade outlet for Chinese products, and in return China has kept the region generously supplied with credits and investment: by the end of 2006, the Chinese had invested almost $8 billion in Africa. On Monday, the Chinese Trade Ministry announced that it will be extending $3 million in credits to African countries in the next three years. Most of that money will be earmarked for building electrical power plants and creating joint ventures, from which Beijing anticipates labor contracts for Chinese firms. The majority of these contracts are expected to be signed during Hu Jintao's current visit to the region.
African Friction
At first glance, Mr. Hu's Africa jaunt appears to be fairly capriciously designed, but the route was actually carefully planned. First of all, the Chinese leader must fulfill his diplomatic obligations by visiting smaller countries as well as larger ones, showing that China is interested in developing relations not just with a handful of "key" countries, but with the entire continent. In addition, with the exception of the Seychelles, the countries that Mr. Hu has included in his trip those that are proving most problematic for Chinese business. In order to reach his vacation in the Seychelles, the Chinese premier will have a sweat through the rest of the continent first.
For example, tough negotiations about timber exports lie ahead in Liberia, Cameroon, Mozambique, and Namibia. Almost all of China's furniture producers get raw materials from these four countries, but the local populations and their leaders are unhappy about the harvesting of their resources. Even tougher talks await in Zambia, from which China imports almost 40% of its copper and where anti-Chinese feelings are running so high that the question of whether to bar Chinese firms altogether was a hot topic in the country's presidential elections last September. In the elections, pro-Beijing President Levi Mwanawasa just barely managed to repulse a challenge from opposition leader Michael Sata, whose campaign was built around criticism of Beijing's recent expansionist economic tendencies. In addition, Zambian copper mines owned by the Chinese are wracked by riots almost every week. The most difficult negotiations for Mr. Hu, however, will be in South Africa, whose president, Thabo Mbeki, roundly criticized Beijing last December, noting bitterly, "China can become a superpower, but all we can be is a supplier of raw materials." Among other examples, in recent years Chinese products have flooded the country's textiles market, pushing out South African manufacturers.
China's financial might will go a long way towards resolving these and other issues. Before Mr. Hu's departure, Beijing unveiled plans to create five special economic zones in Africa along the lines of the Chinese model, according to which any Chinese company that invests in these zones will receive credits and tax breaks from the Chinese government. Most likely, the right to host these profitable zones will go to those countries whose governments have expressed most dissatisfaction with China, particularly South Africa. For countries that don't make the cut, however, China has another tempting treat to offer: it has promised to write off a large part of the debt of 33 African nations in 2007, an amnesty that will presumably be enough to ensure friendly relations towards Chinese capital.
The Darfur Culmination
By far the most important part of the trip will be the Chinese leader's visit to Sudan, where he will arrive on Friday. "This visit will be the culmination of our relations with a friendly China," said Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on Sunday. This leg of the trip has also attracted significant attention from the international community, since many Western leaders are appalled at the very idea of cultivating a relationship with the regime that has been carrying on a campaign of ethnic cleansing against the local population in the oil-rich Darfur region. On the other hand, many hope that Beijing will succeed in convincing Khartoum to allow UN peacekeepers into Darfur.
Hu Jintao also appears to have come up with a original solution to the problem of Darfur. The Chinese deputy foreign affairs minister, who has a reputation as an excellent negotiator on delicate matters, visited Khartoum not long before Mr. Hu set off on his visit to Africa. Upon returning to Beijing, he confidently stated that "the Chairman's visit will undoubtedly bring peace and stability to Darfur." "China and Sudan are currently working on together on many questions, including military cooperation, and we have nothing to hide," he added pointedly.
Many experts believe that Hu Jintao will suggest to Khartoum that it permit a contingent of primarily Chinese UN peacekeepers to be deployed in Darfur. Around 150 Chinese military engineers are already in Sudan, but Beijing could still send a full detachment of troops to the country. Omar al-Bashir is not likely to object too strongly, since most of the petrodollars flowing into Khartoum come from multibillion-dollar contracts with the Chinese state-run oil companies CNPC and Sinopec. The moment is also politically ripe for such a proposal: on Monday, it was announced that the Darfur problem will cost Sudan the chairmanship of the African Union in 2007. Accepting a proposal from the Chinese concerning peacekeepers in the region would give Mr. al-Bashir an opportunity to portray himself in a better light.
If Beijing succeeds in sweet-talking Mr. al-Bashir, the deployment of Chinese peacekeepers to Darfur could be the first step in a Chinese military expansion throughout Africa. The continent currently hosts around 3,000 Chinese troops, but there are no obstacles to increasing that number. There is also no shortage of hot spots in places that are potentially of interest to Beijing. The first candidate for Chinese intervention could be the oil-rich state of Rivers in southern Nigeria, where last week separatists took nine Chinese oil workers hostage. CNPC and Sinopec are actively exploiting the Niger Delta with significant assistance from Abuja, which last September did the Chinese a favor by closing the Nigeria's oil market to almost all other international companies. In fact, Chinese peacekeepers could have a role to play in all of the African countries in which China is pursuing large-scale economic projects. If that turns out to be the case, the US, EU, and Russia can kiss their interests in Africa goodbye for awhile, if not forever.
Alexander Gabuyev
All the Article in Russian as of Jan. 31, 2007
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