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The Elephant in the Room
// The Big Question for Mr. Ivanov Is, Whose Side is Russia on for Iran Sanctions?
This is not the first time that Russian Security Council head Igor Ivanov has arrived in Tehran on a delicate mission. The main thing that distinguishes his most recent visit to the Iranian capital is that this will be the first Russian-Iranian negotiations on this level since the United Nations Security Council voted in December of last year to impose sanctions on Iran if it does not cease its work on uranium enrichment. Moscow also voted in favor of UN Security Council resolution #1737, having unsuccessfully fought to the bitter end in an attempt to soften the wording of the resolution. In order to, heaven forbid, not anger or offend Russia's Iranian partners.
In connection with this, Igor Ivanov's trip to Tehran is supposed to answer one really pressing question: "Is there life after sanctions?" It has turned out that there is, and what a life it is! A month from now, during the course of which the Iranian president will have merrily prodded and provoked the United States with his centrifuges, another question will arise: "Are the sanctions and the resolution itself still alive?" It looks like the answer will be no.
During the talks in Tehran, the two sides took great pains to pretend that the unfortunate resolution, which Moscow was obliged to support as part of its geopolitical game with the West, does not exist. After all, when speaking of the deceased, one either says something good or nothing at all. But what good can Moscow and Tehran have to say about the measures that have been initiated by the US? Nothing. Thus, there is no reason to talk about the bad luck that skittered across the path between Moscow and Tehran last December.
Meanwhile, resolution #1737 contains one concrete point that will have some expression in the near future. The resolution stipulates that by the end of February IAEA head Mohammed El-Baradei must give a new report on the Iranian nuclear program. And if the IAEA confirms that Tehran is continuing to enrich uranium, the UN Security Council is supposed to adopt a new resolution that takes additonal measures against Iran.
But what about the fact that Iran will continue to do whatever it damn well pleases with the development of its nuclear program, regardless of what it is being told not to do? A new Security Council resolution on Iran is unavoidable. Maybe Moscow, which has been running its mouth about the necessity of political and diplomatic solutions, will convince Iran at the last minute not to butt heads with the Security Council? Maybe that is the delicate mission with which Igor Ivanov has been entrusted on his visit to Tehran?
Maybe. But in the announcements that resounded yesterday in the streets of the Iranian capital, it was hard to find any traces of those efforts. From Tehran, the international media reported that Moscow will fulfill its obligations in the construction of the nuclear facility at Bushehr. And what does Moscow think about Tehran's refusal to suspend enrichment? Doesn't it seem like Tehran's position is, shall we say, a little strange, and not quite adequate? Probably, yes. Though Igor Ivanov hasn't said anything about that directly. Incidentally, that's probably precisely what Moscow defines as the art of a diplomatic resolution.
In general, the second UN Security Council resolution on Iran, like the first, will be treated like a corpse: when they bring it out, everyone makes a ruckus - but when it's gone, everyone soon forgets.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Jan. 29, 2007
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