State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov, leader of United Russia party.
Photo: Mikhail Razuvaev
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Who Sits Where
December elections to Russian State Duma will become the main political event of 2007. For the first time ever, the elections will pass by party lists. Vlast decided to forecast how many seats and for what achievements leading Russian factions will get in the Duma.
The rating includes parties which Vlast believes to have most chances to overcome the seven-percent barrier in December 2007. According to public opinion polling, there are four leading parties in Russia at the beginning of 2007: United Russia (State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov is its leader), Fair Russia (Sergei Mironov), Communist Party of Russia, or KPRF (Gennady Zyuganov), and Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia (Vladimir Zhirinovsky).
Vlast experts think these political organizations in total will get a little over 80 percent of votes (United Russia – 42%, Fair Russia – 19%, LDPR – 10%, KPRF – 9.4%). However, due to the redistribution of votes given to minor parties, the favorites will considerably increase their presence in the lower chamber, and will divide all 450 seats in the State Duma between them. The rating was compiled according to eight parameters which correspond to key points of the pre-election campaign of any self-respecting federal party.
1. Orientation stability (150 seats)
This index shows whether a party has devoted supporters who vote for the same brand no matter what. The ruling party has most of supporters (for they always support the acting rulers), and the Communist party has many as well (among those who would like Soviet times to return). However, United Russia will definitely lose some of its voters after “the party number two”, Fair Russia, appeared. LDPR’s supporters are quite stable, although less numerous.
United Russia – 80
Fair Russia – 33
KPRF – 22
LDPR – 15
2. Influence power (100 seats)
Parties’ access to administrative resource will play a very important, if not a decisive, role in the upcoming Duma elections. United Russia is second to none in this sense. This party is likely to get support not only of the Kremlin, but also of most governors. However, Fair Russia too might hope for support of at least a part of regional elite in December 2007. Fair Russia has already secured the federal center’s support. It now has to prove its right to be called the second ruling party, during regional elections in March.
United Russia – 60
Fair Russia -- 25
KPRF – 8
LDPR – 7
3. Party’s finances (75 seats)
This index, which shows the amount of financial funds a party possesses, has considerably lost in significance recently. Yet, neither the spinning of new party leaders, nor bright and rememberable party gatherings, nor productive work with mass media, are possible without stable financing. Although Fair Russia accumulated large amounts in its election funds, United Russia is still the leader here.
United Russia – 50
Fair Russia -- 15
LDPR – 6
KPRF – 4
4. Leading role (40 seats)
New bright charismatic public figures did not appear among party leaders in the last several months. Thus, the leaders here still are Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR’s everlasting chief, and self-perpetuating Communist head Gennady Zyuganov. Boris Gryzlov and Sergei Mironov might object to such estimations, though.
LDPR – 15
KPRF – 12
United Russia – 7
Fair Russia – 6
5. Cover-up skills (30 seats)
The index reflects a party’s ability to attract the voters’ attention not only by boring congresses and round tables, but also by more fun events like scandalous rallies or theatrical acts on the streets of large cities. Vladimir Zhirinovsky is the leader here. He can turn any regular LDPR’s rally of protest near another unfriendly embassy into a very colorful show.
LDPR – 10
United Russia – 8
Fair Russia – 7
KPRF – 5
6. Keeping on air (25 seats)
A party’s access to federal mass media, especially electronic media, can greatly influence the course of any, even if not a very successful, pre-election campaign. Even brightest political speeches for a limited audience (like in a local cultural center or a university) would hardly have the same effect as a short speech on regional or, moreover, federal TV. Judging from regional elections of October 2006, only United Russia (70%) and Fair Russia (30%) can hope for the grace of federal TV channels. Others can hope only for random mentionings in news.
United Russia – 15
Fair Russia – 5
LDPR – 3
KPRF – 2
7. Weight of old victories (20 seats)
The experience of successful participation in previous elections might secure the voters’ support for political parties, for some voters do not want to or cannot puzzle out the stratagems of current political competition. Some voters do not want to vote for parties that won’t make it into the Duma. However, there remained not much of voters like that in Russia.
United Russia – 12
KPRF – 4
Fair Russia – 3
LDPR – 1
8. Keeping promises (10 seats)
The index reflects whether parties keep their election-campaign promises and follow their party programs. It has the weakest influence on the choice of Russian voters. Yet, most advanced voters might begin questioning if the promises of some politicians are realistic, like promises to double salaries or to annex the Crimea and Abkhazia to Russia.
United Russia – 6
Fair Russia – 2
KPRF – 1
LDPR – 1
Final rating
United Russia – 238
Fair Russia – 96
LDPR – 58
KPRF – 58
Dmitry Kamyshev
All the Article in Russian as of Jan. 22, 2007
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