Bush Surges Again
// He'll fight Iran in Iraq
U.S. President George W. Bush unveiled a new operation plan for Iraq at the end of last week. The size of the U.S. military contingent will be significantly increased and will now not only fight Iraqi militants, but with their sponsor Iran as well. Having experience failure in Iraq, the Bush administration, two years before the president's tem is over, has decided on a major escalation. The White House has begun war on two fronts: against Iran and against the Democratically-controlled Congress.
The Iranian Front
"We will disrupt the attacks on our forces," Bush said. "We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq." In effect, the president named Iran the main cause of the failure of American policy in Iraq and stated intentions to fight it. An additional 21,500 soldiers will be sent to Iraq for that mission.
The military quickly snapped into action after Bush's speech. U.S. forces carried out a special operation in Erbil, in northern Iraq. A building was seized that Tehran claimed was its consulate. Six of its employees were arrested during the raid on charges of planning an attack on American soldiers. The American command stated that neither the building nor the Iranian arrestees had diplomatic status. A furious response was expected from Tehran, but it did not come. Iran limited itself to expressing its protest to the Iraqi and Swiss ambassadors. (Switzerland represents U.S. interests in Iran since Washington and Tehran have no diplomatic relations.)
American analysts have interpreted the operation in Erbil as a sign of U.S. readiness to go to war with Iran. White House press secretary Tony Snow called talk of military action against Iran rumor, however, and Pentagon chief Robert Gates said that “any kind of military action inside Iran itself, that would be a very last resort.” The same officials effectively contradicted themselves, however, when Gates said that the United States “hopes” that it won't have to strike at targets in Iran and Snow said that the Pentagon was developing scenarios for action in Iran.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also got on the anti-Iran campaign path this weekend. She began a Middle Eastern tour with the goal, Kommersant has learned, of putting together an anti-Iran alliance among Arab states. She expects the U.S.'s concern over the growing power of Shia Iran to be shared by Sunni Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. She stated yesterday that she was not bringing a new settlement plan to the Middle East, but hoped to press Israel and Palestine toward some kind of agreement. Clearly, the U.S. will only be able to begin solving the Iran problem after that region is calmed.
The Democratic Front
This escalation is intended by the White House to right the catastrophic situation the U.S. finds itself in in Iraq three years after the beginning of the war. Military setbacks already cost the Republican Party the November Congressional elections and the president's approval rating has fallen to a record low 25 percent. The new strategy for Iraq and Iran is meant to restore lost strength to the Republicans.
Bush's initiative was approved of by most of his fellow party members. Republican activist and Vietnam War veteran John McCain has long been demanding a larger military contingent, and now the president has taken his advise. Democrats are even calling the new strategy “the McCain doctrine.” Senator McCain is considered a likely presidential candidate in 2008. He was quick to distance himself from the new plan, saying that he couldn't guarantee that Bush's plan would work because it was important not only to send the forces, but to use them correctly as well.
Other high-profile Republicans, such as potential presidential candidates Rudolph Giuliani and Mitt Romney supported the Bush plan. Republican Senators Sam Brownback and Chuck Hagel called increasing the number of troops in Iraq a fatal error. Democrats condemned the White House's desire to send more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. Party leaders stated that the Congress should cut off funding to American forces in Iraq to prevent the enlargement of the contingent. That decision may be unpopular, however, and damage the Democrats' image. Pre-election party favorite Hillary Clinton reacted ambiguously. She stated that she might support an initiative to increase the contingent temporarily if it were part of a plan for a full pullout of forces from Iraq.
Democrats were less than pleased with the White House's intentions in regard to Iran as well. Tom Lantos, chairman of the House of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee, suggested beginning direct negotiations with Tehran, but also called on the White House to tighten sanctions against foreign companies that help that country. He noted that pressure from the world community on Iran is weak, due in large part to China and Russia, which have drawn out the passage of a resolution in the UN Security Council for five months. The resultant resolution was a pathetic collection of sanctions that will have practically no influence on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Another Democratic congressman, Brad Sherman, stated that the Russians have to be haggled with, and not lectured, since U.S. national security depends on their support of Iran. Sherman told Kommersant that “the big Iranian trade with Russia should encompass all problems, including Abkhazia and the Caspian oil pipeline. We should offer Moscow the maximum number of carrots when talking about the most serious threats at the beginning of the 21st Century, which come from Iran and North Korea.”
The U.S. administration, it seems, is firmly set on its course. The White House assumes that Bush may return to his position as authoritative national leader and raise his rating just by starting a new Middle Eastern campaign. Therefore, domestic politics will move the administration to a confrontation foreign policy. Bush has a good example of that to follow. His main opponent, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took the reigns of that country and raised its international influence exactly by choosing a confrontational policy.
Dmitry Sidorov, Washington; Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Jan. 15, 2007
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