There was an honor guard everywhere a portrait of Turkmenbashi was yesterday in Ashgabat.
Photo: AP
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Fighting for Turkmenistan
The funeral of Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov took place yesterday. Tomorrow, the Khalk Maslakhaty (People's Council) will shed some light on a likely successor to Niyazov at an extraordinary session. The opposition is preparing to fight for power too. One opposition leader told Kommersant that, if the regime does not change its ways, the opposition is ready to topple it.
The Road to the Mausoleum
Niyazov was buried in a mausoleum in his native village of Kipchak, 15 km. outside Ashgabat. The mausoleum was forethoughtfully built in advance on the initiative of the dictator himself next to his Turkmenbashi Rukhy Mosque, the largest in Central Asia. The mosque, which cost the national treasury $100 million, was completed two years ago. The mausoleum was a gift from the French company that built the mosque.
The service for the Father of All Turkmen took place in Ashgabat. A line of several tens of thousands of people slowly filed past the coffin in the presidential palace, stopping occasionally to let a foreign delegation in. There were about 40 such delegations. The Russian delegation was headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and the American delegation by Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher.
Turkmenbashi made his final trip to the mausoleum on an armored carriage wrapped in a national carpet, followed by limousines carrying the country's leaders, including acting president Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. There were common prayers before his burial led by the chief mullah of Turkmenistan. In accordance with Muslim tradition, his body was wrapped in shroud and, as a sign of his service to his homeland, draped with a national flag. His sarcophagus is located in the center of the mausoleum. In the corners of the mausoleum, rest the remains of his mother Kurbansoltan-eje, in whose name the month of April was rechristened by her son; his father Atamurad, who dies in battle in 1942; and his two brothers, who died in the earthquake of 1948.
Witnessed say that the services were conducted speedily and with reserve. Niyazov ruled Turkmenistan 21 years to the day. On December 21, 1985, he became the first secretary of the central committee of the Communist Party of the Turkmenian Soviet Socialist Republic, and on December 21, 2006, he died of a heart attack as president-for-life. Now everyone is worried about who will take over the rule of Turkmenistan and how the natural gas – rich country will develop.
The Regime
The situation may be clarified somewhat tomorrow at the session of the Khalk Maslakhaty. That body, which was headed by Turkmenbashi himself, has more authority than the Mejlis (parliament). Its members come from the state economic bureaucracy, from the regions and from the tribes. A new head and deputy head of the Khalk Maslakhaty will also be chosen. Until recently, the deputy hear pf the Khalk Maslakhaty was Ovezgledy Ataev, but he was arrested immediately after the death of Niyazov. Control of the Khalk Maslakhaty is a key factor in struggle for power in the country.
Many Kommersant source acquainted with the situation in Turkmenistan say that Berdymukhammedov, the current acting president of Turkmenistan, is unlikely to become the next president, as he is “mainly a marionette.” “Berdymukhammedov is not an independent politician. I know from my own experience that the real power in Turkmenistan today is in the hands of the power officials,” said Khudaiberdy Orazov, former deputy prime minister and head of the Turkmen Central Bank, now leader of the Vatan (Homeland) movement.
A major figure among the power officials is head of the presidential guard Akmurad Rejepov. He is considered a shadow politician, however, who prefers to control the situation from behind the scenes and not take a leading role. “Rejepov controls everyone and everything,” a source close to the Turkmen opposition told Kommersant. “He will decide who takes what office.”
There is some information indicating that Turkmen Defense Minister Agageldy Mamedgeldyev may become leader of the Khalk Maslakhaty. His deputy would then be someone from the Interior Ministry, and the Security Council, the secretary of which is the defense minister, would pass into the hands of the minister of national security. In that case, power in Turkmenistan would be completely in the hands of power officials from Niyazov's inner circle, and the president would be nominated from that same circle.
If that happens, there will be no radical changes in Turkmenistan. That possibility does not suit the opposition, which is also not sitting on its hands.
The Opposition
Leaders of the Union of Democratic Forces of Turkmenistan met in Kiev yesterday. That organization was founded in 2003. They discussed the situation in the country after the death of Niyazov and the possibility of their participation in the political life in their homeland, which they were forced to flee because of persecution by the regime. Several of those leaders told Kommersant that they would consider contacts with the new authorities, but they have not received any invitations to a dialog from them.
Opposition Khudaiberdy Orazov, who was also present in Kiev, suggested that the new Turkmen authorities will be forced to make contact with the opposition. “They understand that the situation in the country is catastrophic, people are starving and money from natural gas is still going into the pockets of the people at the top,” Orazov told Kommersant. “If urgent reforms are not undertaken, the results will be unpredictable tomorrow.” If the authorities do not enter into a dialog, the opposition intends to act decisively.
“If the regime does not undergo change, we will have no choice but the radical one – removing it from power,” Orazov said. “We did not rush to that option during Turkmenbashi's rule because we had reliable information that he only had half a year or a year at most left. It was possible to wait that long for the sake of avoiding possible bloodshed. If even younger rulers decide to continue that business, we will not tolerate that 10 or 15 years. Then there will either be the radical option or we will leave politics.”
Turkmen opposition figures say on unofficial conversations that Ashgabat will enter into a dialog with them only under outside influence. “We are not only talking about the situation among ourselves, but we are activating contacts with influential international factors that can exert influence on the develop,emt of the situation in our country,” Orazov said. A source close to the Turkmen opposition said that the opposition is “probing, mainly in Russia and the United States, and that will not be finished over night.”
Orazov, who was harshly critical of Russia's accommodation of the totalitarian regime in an interview with Kommersant three years ago, thinks that the situation has changed today. “Russia has grown stronger economically and it doesn't have to close its eyes to the actions of the Turkmen regime, including actions in regard to Russian citizens living in Turkmenistan. Therefore, Russian policy toward Turkmenistan may be more realistic and that will be the basis for our contacts with Russian representatives,” he said.
The Turkmen opposition is placing no small hopes on another factor – the mysterious disappearance of deputy chief of staff of the Turkmen presidential administration Alexander Zhadan, who was the administrator closest to Niyazov and who was often called the main controller of his finances. Kommersant sources in the Turkmen opposition say that not only did much of the regime's finances flow through Zhadan, contacts with important Western centers of influence did as well. Therefore, the regime lost many contacts in Western capitals when he disappeared. (Sources suggest that he may be hiding in Israel). With the power struggle that is coming up in Turkmenistan and the possibility of the redistribution of its gas flows, that is an important factor.
Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 25, 2006
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