The View from Ashgabat
// The price of the question
I was in the Turkmen capital twice. The first time was in 1977, during the Soviet era. The second time was in 1997, 20 years later, during the so-called Aral Fund, the goal of which was to unite the efforts of the presidents of the five Central Asian countries to save the Aral Sea. I have to admit that, when I saw Ashgabat the second time, I was amazed. The new Ashgabat made a strong impression. Construction was going on at an intensive rate and the face of the Central Asian backwater was changing rapidly. They said that Turkmenbashi wanted to make Ashgabat the Paris of the East, and he succeeded to a large degree.
At the same time, it was obvious that there was a skeleton in the closet of this outwardly stable and prosperous country. The people I met were somehow tense and distance. When the conversation turned to politics, they became completely silent. Saparmurat Niyazov's cult of personality was in evidence at every step with portraits and monuments that mad a dismal impression. Furthermore, Turkmenbashi treated the foreign diplomats accredited in Ashgabat like subjects. I will never forget how he ordered the foreign ambassadors at the reception for the Aral summit to stand and speak about Turkmenistan and its leader “from the whole heart.”
Even then it was clear that the dramatic moment would come in Turkmen life when it would all end. Nothing is eternal and no one is immortal. Now that moment is here. Today, the main question is what next. It is hard to suggest any specific persons who may lead Turkmenistan in the post-Niyazov era. It is already obvious that the process of setting of a new system of power will take long years. Whether there will be a comparatively painless change of power or serious upheaval in Turkmenistan depends to a great extent on the ability of the people standing around the empty Turkmen throne to agree among themselves. I suggest that have to be considered first, and not the liberal opposition that lives in the West. Who will ever admit them to power when it is simpler and easier for them to share power among themselves.
In terms of geopolitics, its is highly likely that gas-rich Turkmenistan is another post-Soviet country where a surge of interest from the world powers – Russia, the European Union, the United States – will be seen. I am not inclined to think that Turkmenistan, now that it has lost its leader, will need an older brother in order to feel secure, whether Russian or American. It has to be admitted that the neutrality Ashgabat chose for itself has advantages. And its wealth of gas could allow Turkmenistan not to look at the outside world if it doesn't want to – just like when Turkmenbashi was alive.
Muratbek Imanaliev, former foreign minister of Kyrgyzstan
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 25, 2006
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