Another Japanese – Another Chance
The Japanese foreign minister’s proposal on the South Kurils, which lived a few hours until the ministry refuted it, was not supposed to give Moscow a breakthrough plan to settle the territorial dispute. Taro Aso’s words have caused extreme reactions among politicians, journalists and public in both Japan and Russia, showing that Japan never had a new definite proposal. What’s more, there could not have been such a proposal. All possible options to solve the problem have been voiced hundreds of times during 60-year-old history of the dispute between Moscow and Tokyo. There were numerous and repetitive offers to return to Japan the four islands, to give back three, two, two and a half, one or not give anything at all, leaving things as they are now.
An array of projects and plans have been suggested – joint development of the islands, their virtual return with Moscow recognizing Japan’s rule on the South Kurils but owning the territories, and another way – solving the territorial dispute on the basis of the joint declaration of 1956. None of these options have been found satisfactory. Why so? The major problem of Moscow and Tokyo is not about having few projects. The major problem is that Tokyo and Moscow has had no political will to make a tough and painful but crucial decision, which still leaves the two great powers without a peace treaty.
So, there are no grounds to view the Japanese foreign minister’s statement as a new initiative. It does not mean, though, that it may as well be overlooked. It would be naïve to think that Taro Aso acted on his own initiative with no idea of what people in the government thinks about it. It is not the way things are done in politics. This was a planned leak followed by a planned retraction. More importantly, this was a signal for Moscow. In fact, it was the second signal after Japan changed the government this fall with Shinzo Abe taking over from Junichiro Koizumi. It was not for the first time over the past months that Minister Aso insists on being flexible in settling the territorial dispute and says the islands could be divided between the two nations. That is to say, Japan is willing to abandon the old four-islands-or-nothing mantra.
These developments are no accident. Junichiro Koizumi’s successor, Shinzo Abe, however, has quite a different stance on the Kuril row. Koizumi, for once, was quite blunt and steadfast on the issue before leaving office. Why does Japan voice new offers?
Every new Japanese leader endeavors to show their willingness to go down in history as the person who managed to clear up the eternal problem in relations with Russia. That’s why every new Japanese administration gives a new chance to Moscow to bury the hatchet once and for all – with the political will and flexibility that has always been on demand.
Sergey Strokan, columnist
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 15, 2006
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