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Counting Down the Islands
// Japan offers Russia to go halves on the islands in dispute
Friendship of Nations
Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso has suggested going halves in dividing the South Kuril Islands, just like Moscow did settling a frontier dispute with China. Earlier, Japan insisted that Moscow should return all four South Kuril Islands. Russia has not given an official reaction to the new offer. The Japanese Foreign Ministry, though, said later that the press misunderstood Mr. Aso. However, Japanese diplomatic sources say that Taro Aso voiced an idea which has long been discussed in Tokyo. ITAR-TASS correspondent in Japan Vasily Golovnin brings the details for Kommersant readers.
Let’s Go Dutch
Speaking to the foreign affairs commission of the Japanese parliament’s lower chamber Taro Aso answered an opposition leader’s persistent questions. The deputy mentioned an option of demanding only two or three Kuril Islands from Russia to settle the decades-long dispute. Japanese ministers usually try to avoid any discussions of this possibility. They reiterate that the government is seeking to retrieve the four islands and sign a peace treaty with Russia, which the two countries has so far been unable to make since 1945 due to the territorial row. Yet, this time around, Mr. Aso was very easily involved in a debate on sharing the islands as if this option has long been on the agenda at the government.
“It makes no sense talking about two, three or four islands without thinking of their area,” the minister explained. “If we halve the Northern Territories, we will receive 25 percent of the Iturup Island and three other islands. The proportion will be approximately 50 to 50. We should be realistic entering talks.”
“The problem can be solved by political means only,” Aso said. “Russian President Vladimir Putin wields considerable power, and he truly wants to settle the territorial issue. We must try to clear up this problem as long as this man is in office.”
The minister’s words sounded so radical that Japanese media decided to tell about the news only Thursday night after a number of calls to the government and checks. The Yomiuri newspaper has put the Kuril story on the front page headlined: “Aso Offers to Go Halves on the Northern Territories”.
The Japanese Foreign Ministry confirmed Thursday the minister’s words but said they had been misinterpreted. Answering Kommersant’s question, an official at the ministry underscored that Taro Aso’s statement was not an official proposal of the government. He added that the press had presented the minister’s words “with the wrong shade of meaning”. The official confirmed, though, that Tokyo’s stance on the territorial dispute is unchanged and based on earlier accords with Moscow.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry would not comment Taro Aso’s statement yesterday. A high-ranking Russian diplomat told Kommersant: “We do not comment on impromptu speeches of our Japanese counterparts, especially when they go back on them.”
The Chinese Option
At least officially, Japan is still endeavoring to retrieve all South Kuril Islands – the big Iturup, the smaller Shikotan and Kunashir and the Khabomai group of uninhabited islets which the Japanese consider as one island to make the talks easier. As a trade-off Tokyo is willing to be flexible with dates and terms for the return of the territories, for example, retrieving not all islands at one time and paying financial compensations to its inhabitants.
Russia’s position has so far been quite close to a division formula. Moscow suggests looking for compromises in the 1956 Soviet-Japanese declaration where Moscow expressed willingness to return the smallest portion of the Kuril Islands – Shikotan and Khabomai – to its eastern neighbor as an act of good will. This could be possible, however, as the final concession and only in case the peace treaty is concluded.
Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Russian Duma’s foreign affairs committee, told the press back in November that Japan ought to sign the peace treaty without any preliminary conditions or demanding that Moscow recognize Tokyo’s rule in all South Kurils or their parts. Only in this case the Japanese might get some islands from Russia as an act of goodwill in order to improve neighbor relations, Kochachev noted. The head of the Duma’s committee added, though, that in relations with Tokyo Moscow should not “replicate” the so-called Chinese scenario. He meant a treaty which saw Moscow and Beijing halving river islands in the eastern part of the Russian-Chinese border, which has finally resolved a 10-year-long dispute.
The Japanese, however, are quite attracted to the Chinese scenario. This solution has shown that the Russians may cede a part of their territories under certain circumstances. Secondly, the sharing of the islands on the Amur has been perceived as a symbol of Russia’s dangerous rapprochement with China, the nation that Tokyo views as a major rival.
Unofficial debates of the possibility and need to have a “bold” compromise with Moscow have become loud under Shindzo Abe’s government dominated by New Conservatives. Japan’s foreign policy chief Taro Aso is one of them as are some leaders of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Japanese neocons prefer to demonstrate their “hawk” qualities mostly in relations with China and North Korea, considering Russia as useful counterbalance for Beijing and a possible partner in the strategic game in Asia.
What Are Neocons Up to?
A source close to Prime Minister Abe told Kommersant that the Japanese government is inclined to look for new ways to settle the South Kuril row. “We have a feeling that some progress is soon to be made in the islands dispute,” he said. “This issue is not as complicated as was the territorial problem of the Soviet Union and China which even sparkled military clashes. Despite this, Moscow and Beijing managed to settle the dispute and draw the frontier line. We should also think over new ideas which would not entail a defeat of either of the parties, but will profit both nations.”
Back in September, Foreign Minister Aso started his term in office, suggesting that Russia consider stepping up joint economic activities on the South Kuril Islands. He mentioned that Tokyo may be satisfied with returning Kunashir, Shikotan and Khabomai, leaving Russia the biggest, most populated and economically developed Iturup. Japan’s Foreign Ministry insisted later, like this week, that the press misinterpreted the minister.
Evidently, Japanese neocons are hotly debating a possible compromise with Russia, and Taro Aso’s mention of one of the options at the parliament was either deliberate or accidental. By the way, it is not the first slip of the tongue of the minister. After North Korea held its first nuclear test, Mr. Aso suggested discussing a possibility for Japan to have nuclear weapons as a way to contain Pyongyang. This statement caused real uproar. The minister’s words were later dismissed as a “personal opinion”. The aim was achieved, though, and the world learnt that Tokyo may think about developing a nuclear bomb in case of inauspicious developments.
The problem is whether Taro Aso’s words could really lead to official or informal proposals on a South Kuril compromise. Unlike neocons, old Japanese conservatives cannot stomach any retreat from the conventional position on the South Kuril issue. What is more, general public in Japan is not ready for this development either. The go-halves scenario may have appeared as the best way to sway the public opinion. This offer may see Japan retrieving the four South Kuril Islands – in whole or in part, which could be presented as the implementation of the old demand. On the other hand, Moscow may not be ready to discuss any trade-offs. There are grounds to think that the Kremlin is now not willing to take any actions which could question its power and sovereignty.
Vasily Golovnin
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 15, 2006
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